College of New Energy, Long Dong University, 745000, Qingyang, China.
State Key Laboratory of Fire Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, 230026, China.
Sci Rep. 2023 May 9;13(1):7503. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-34618-6.
Emergency capability assessment is a complex system with multiple factors, variables and levels. Incomplete and uncertain assess information often occurs during assessment. Based on this, a method combining D-number theory and fuzzy analytic Hierarchy process (FAHP) is proposed to study the emergency capacity of coal enterprises in Longdong area. On the basis of analyzing the limitation of D-S evidence theory, the D-number theory was optimized and improved. According to the principles of systematicness, feasibility, scientificity and timeliness, a hierarchical structure model of enterprise emergency capability assessment was constructed from the perspective of pre-incident, mid-incident and post-incident, which consisted of 4 first-level indicators and 18 s-level indicators. The weight and importance of the assessment index of emergency response capability are calculated by organically integrating the D-number preference relation with the hierarchy structure. Combined with the assessment results of experts, a quantitative analysis and evaluation of the emergency response capacity of a coal enterprise was conducted by using FAHP. The comprehensive score of the enterprise's emergency response capability was 80.45, and the level of emergency response capacity was "good". The research results show that the D-FAHP method has high reliability in evaluating the emergency response capability of coal enterprises, avoiding the impact of uncertain and incomplete information on the assessment results. This can not only effectively identify the weak links in emergency management, but also meet the emergency decision-making needs of enterprises in the emergency state, which has important guiding significance to improve the ability and level of enterprise emergency management.
应急能力评估是一个具有多因素、多变量和多层次的复杂系统。在评估过程中，往往会出现不完整和不确定的评估信息。基于此，提出了一种将 D 数理论与模糊层次分析（FAHP）相结合的方法，来研究陇东地区煤炭企业的应急能力。在分析 D-S 证据理论局限性的基础上，对 D 数理论进行了优化和改进。根据系统性、可行性、科学性和时效性的原则，从事前、事中、事后三个角度构建了企业应急能力评估的层次结构模型，由 4 个一级指标和 18 个二级指标组成。通过有机地将 D 数偏好关系与层次结构相结合，计算应急响应能力评估指标的权重和重要性。结合专家的评估结果，采用 FAHP 对煤炭企业的应急响应能力进行了定量分析和评价。企业应急响应能力的综合得分为 80.45，应急响应能力水平为“良好”。研究结果表明，D-FAHP 方法在评估煤炭企业应急响应能力方面具有较高的可靠性，可避免不确定和不完整信息对评估结果的影响。这不仅可以有效地识别应急管理中的薄弱环节，还可以满足企业在应急状态下的应急决策需求，对提高企业应急管理能力和水平具有重要的指导意义。
