利用异构社区特征的城市洪水实时预测时空图深度学习模型。

A spatial-temporal graph deep learning model for urban flood nowcasting leveraging heterogeneous community features.

机构信息

Zachry Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA.

Department of Computer Science and Computer Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2023 Apr 25;13(1):6768. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-32548-x.

Abstract

Flood nowcasting refers to near-future prediction of flood status as an extreme weather event unfolds to enhance situational awareness. The objective of this study was to adopt and test a novel structured deep-learning model for urban flood nowcasting by integrating physics-based and human-sensed features. We present a new computational modeling framework including an attention-based spatial-temporal graph convolution network (ASTGCN) model and different streams of data that are collected in real-time, preprocessed, and fed into the model to consider spatial and temporal information and dependencies that improve flood nowcasting. The novelty of the computational modeling framework is threefold: first, the model is capable of considering spatial and temporal dependencies in inundation propagation thanks to the spatial and temporal graph convolutional modules; second, it enables capturing the influence of heterogeneous temporal data streams that can signal flooding status, including physics-based features (e.g., rainfall intensity and water elevation) and human-sensed data (e.g., residents' flood reports and fluctuations of human activity) on flood nowcasting. Third, its attention mechanism enables the model to direct its focus to the most influential features that vary dynamically and influence the flood nowcasting. We show the application of the modeling framework in the context of Harris County, Texas, as the study area and 2017 Hurricane Harvey as the flood event. Three categories of features are used for nowcasting the extent of flood inundation in different census tracts: (i) static features that capture spatial characteristics of various locations and influence their flood status similarity, (ii) physics-based dynamic features that capture changes in hydrodynamic variables, and (iii) heterogeneous human-sensed dynamic features that capture various aspects of residents' activities that can provide information regarding flood status. Results indicate that the ASTGCN model provides superior performance for nowcasting of urban flood inundation at the census-tract level, with precision 0.808 and recall 0.891, which shows the model performs better compared with other state-of-the-art models. Moreover, ASTGCN model performance improves when heterogeneous dynamic features are added into the model that solely relies on physics-based features, which demonstrates the promise of using heterogenous human-sensed data for flood nowcasting. Given the results of the comparisons of the models, the proposed modeling framework has the potential to be more investigated when more data of historical events are available in order to develop a predictive tool to provide community responders with an enhanced prediction of the flood inundation during urban flood.

摘要

洪水临近预报是指在极端天气事件展开时,对洪水状况进行未来短期预测,以增强态势感知。本研究的目的是采用并测试一种新颖的基于结构的深度学习模型,通过整合基于物理和人类感知的特征来进行城市洪水临近预报。我们提出了一个新的计算建模框架,包括一个基于注意力的时空图卷积网络(ASTGCN)模型和实时收集、预处理并输入模型以考虑空间和时间信息和依赖性的不同数据流,这些信息和依赖性可以改善洪水临近预报。计算建模框架的新颖之处有三点:首先,由于时空图卷积模块,该模型能够考虑洪水传播的空间和时间依赖性;其次,它能够捕捉到可以指示洪水状况的异质时间数据流的影响,包括基于物理的特征(例如降雨强度和水位)和人类感知数据(例如居民的洪水报告和人类活动的波动)对洪水临近预报的影响。第三,其注意力机制使模型能够将其注意力集中在动态变化并影响洪水临近预报的最具影响力的特征上。我们展示了该建模框架在德克萨斯州哈里斯县作为研究区域和 2017 年哈维飓风作为洪水事件的背景下的应用。用于在不同普查区内预报洪水泛滥范围的有三类特征:(i)捕获各个位置的空间特征并影响其洪水状态相似性的静态特征,(ii)捕获水动力变量变化的基于物理的动态特征,以及(iii)捕获居民活动各个方面的异质人类感知动态特征,这些特征可以提供有关洪水状况的信息。结果表明,ASTGCN 模型在人口普查区一级的城市洪水泛滥临近预报中提供了卓越的性能,精度为 0.808,召回率为 0.891,这表明与其他最先进的模型相比,该模型的性能更好。此外,当将仅依赖于物理的特征的异构动态特征添加到模型中时,ASTGCN 模型的性能会提高,这表明使用异构人类感知数据进行洪水临近预报具有很大的潜力。鉴于模型比较的结果,当有更多的历史事件数据可用时,该建议的建模框架有可能会被进一步研究,以便开发预测工具,为社区应对者提供城市洪水期间洪水泛滥的增强预测。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/1e7f/10130063/c05ad22b0ffc/41598_2023_32548_Fig1_HTML.jpg

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索