School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, China.
Chinese PLA Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2023 May 18;9:e42673. doi: 10.2196/42673.
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a significant zoonotic disease mainly transmitted by rodents. However, the determinants of its spatiotemporal patterns in Northeast China remain unclear.
This study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics and epidemiological characteristics of HFRS and detect the meteorological effect of the HFRS epidemic in Northeastern China.
The HFRS cases of Northeastern China were collected from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and meteorological data were collected from the National Basic Geographic Information Center. Times series analyses, wavelet analysis, Geodetector model, and SARIMA model were performed to identify the epidemiological characteristics, periodical fluctuation, and meteorological effect of HFRS in Northeastern China.
A total of 52,655 HFRS cases were reported in Northeastern China from 2006 to 2020, and most patients with HFRS (n=36,558, 69.43%) were aged between 30-59 years. HFRS occurred most frequently in June and November and had a significant 4- to 6-month periodicity. The explanatory power of the meteorological factors to HFRS varies from 0.15 ≤ q ≤ 0.01. In Heilongjiang province, mean temperature with a 4-month lag, mean ground temperature with a 4-month lag, and mean pressure with a 5-month lag had the most explanatory power on HFRS. In Liaoning province, mean temperature with a 1-month lag, mean ground temperature with a 1-month lag, and mean wind speed with a 4-month lag were found to have an effect on HFRS, but in Jilin province, the most important meteorological factors for HFRS were precipitation with a 6-month lag and maximum evaporation with a 5-month lag. The interaction analysis of meteorological factors mostly showed nonlinear enhancement. The SARIMA model predicted that 8,343 cases of HFRS are expected to occur in Northeastern China.
HFRS showed significant inequality in epidemic and meteorological effects in Northeastern China, and eastern prefecture-level cities presented a high risk of epidemic. This study quantifies the hysteresis effects of different meteorological factors and prompts us to focus on the influence of ground temperature and precipitation on HFRS transmission in future studies, which could assist local health authorities in developing HFRS-climate surveillance, prevention, and control strategies targeting high-risk populations in China.
肾综合征出血热（HFRS）是一种主要由啮齿动物传播的重要人畜共患疾病。然而，中国东北地区 HFRS 的时空模式决定因素仍不清楚。
本研究旨在探讨 HFRS 的时空动态和流行病学特征，并检测东北地区 HFRS 流行的气象影响。
从中国疾病预防控制中心收集中国东北地区的 HFRS 病例，并从国家基础地理信息中心收集气象数据。采用时间序列分析、小波分析、地理探测器模型和 SARIMA 模型，确定东北地区 HFRS 的流行病学特征、周期性波动和气象影响。
2006 年至 2020 年期间，东北地区共报告了 52655 例 HFRS 病例，其中大多数 HFRS 患者（n=36558，69.43%）年龄在 30-59 岁之间。HFRS 最常发生在 6 月和 11 月，具有明显的 4-6 个月的周期性。气象因素对 HFRS 的解释能力在 0.15≤q≤0.01 之间。在黑龙江省，滞后 4 个月的平均温度、滞后 4 个月的平均地面温度和滞后 5 个月的平均气压对 HFRS 的解释能力最大。在辽宁省，发现滞后 1 个月的平均温度、滞后 1 个月的平均地面温度和滞后 4 个月的平均风速对 HFRS 有影响，但在吉林省，对 HFRS 最重要的气象因素是滞后 6 个月的降水量和滞后 5 个月的最大蒸发量。气象因素的交互分析大多表现出非线性增强。SARIMA 模型预测，东北地区预计将出现 8343 例 HFRS 病例。
HFRS 在东北地区的流行和气象影响存在显著的不平等，东部地级市呈现出高流行风险。本研究量化了不同气象因素的滞后效应，并促使我们在未来的研究中关注地面温度和降水对 HFRS 传播的影响，这有助于地方卫生当局针对中国高危人群制定 HFRS-气候监测、预防和控制策略。
Zotero 插件
