El Husseiny Israa A
Economics Department, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Cairo University, Giza, 12613 Egypt.
J Econ Struct. 2023;12(1):4. doi: 10.1186/s40008-023-00298-8. Epub 2023 May 11.
The relative effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies in promoting economic growth is not sufficiently examined at the empirical level for developing countries, including Egypt in particular. Hence, this paper is the first attempt to empirically examine the relative effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies in promoting Egypt's output growth utilizing a time-series data set over the time-period (1960-2019). The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing approach to cointegration to investigate the long run and short run effects of fiscal and monetary policies on Egypt's output growth under a modified version of the St. Louis equation model. The study finds that both monetary and fiscal policies have a positive impact on the economic activity in the long run. However, while monetary policy seems to be more effective than fiscal policy in stimulating the growth rate of nominal GDP, fiscal policy tends to have a larger, more predictable and faster impact than monetary policy on the real economic activity. Accordingly, Egypt's policymakers are advised to follow the Keynesian's prescription in terms of increasing the reliance on fiscal policy compared to monetary policy to achieve macroeconomic stability in both the short run and long run.
在包括埃及在内的发展中国家，财政政策和货币政策在促进经济增长方面的相对有效性在实证层面上并未得到充分检验。因此，本文首次尝试利用1960 - 2019年期间的时间序列数据集，对财政政策和货币政策在促进埃及产出增长方面的相对有效性进行实证检验。该研究采用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）边界检验协整方法，在圣路易斯方程模型的修正版本下，研究财政政策和货币政策对埃及产出增长的长期和短期影响。研究发现，从长期来看，货币政策和财政政策都对经济活动有积极影响。然而，虽然货币政策在刺激名义国内生产总值增长率方面似乎比财政政策更有效，但财政政策对实际经济活动的影响往往比货币政策更大、更可预测且更快。因此，建议埃及的政策制定者遵循凯恩斯主义的建议，在短期和长期内，相较于货币政策，增加对财政政策的依赖，以实现宏观经济稳定。
