School of Economics, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China.
Front Public Health. 2022 Oct 28;10:960655. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.960655. eCollection 2022.
The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has brought the global economy to a crisis: how to choose the optimal policy tools to cope with the external impacts has attracted worldwide attention. The research evaluates the effects of China's fiscal and monetary policies in promoting economic recovery by establishing a CGE model. Five representative countermeasures such as exempting value-added tax (VAT) and cutting loan rates are studied. The results indicate that: from the aspect of fiscal policies, increasing investment shows a better effect in boosting economy compared with exempting VAT and increasing medical care expenditures; however, the policy also causes price inflation (+0.45%) and crowding-out of enterprise investment (-0.03%). From the aspect of monetary policies, providing targeted loans to enterprises has a better boosting effect on economy compared with cutting loan rates. In the choice between fiscal or monetary policies, fiscal policies exert better effects (household income, +0.95%) when taking the improvement of residents' welfare as the objective. If taking promoting recovery of enterprises and boosting the economy as objectives, monetary policies are found to be better (GDP, +1.99%). Therefore, fiscal and monetary policies should be guided by different objectives and allowed to work in a synergistic manner.
如何选择最优的政策工具来应对外部冲击，引起了全球关注。本研究通过建立 CGE 模型，评估了中国财政和货币政策在促进经济复苏方面的效果。研究了免征增值税和降低贷款利率等五种有代表性的对策。结果表明：从财政政策方面看，增加投资比免征增值税和增加医疗支出更能有效促进经济增长；但该政策也会导致物价上涨（+0.45%）和企业投资挤出（-0.03%）。从货币政策方面看，向企业提供定向贷款比降低贷款利率对经济的促进作用更好。在财政政策还是货币政策的选择上，如果以提高居民福利为目标，财政政策效果更好（家庭收入，+0.95%）；如果以促进企业复苏和提振经济为目标，则货币政策效果更好（GDP，+1.99%）。因此，财政和货币政策应根据不同的目标进行引导，并协同发挥作用。
