College of Mathematical Sciences, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150001, China.
Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences & Interdisciplinary Lab for Mathematical Ecology and Epidemiology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2R3, Canada.
J Theor Biol. 2023 Aug 7;570:111522. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111522. Epub 2023 May 18.
The successive emergence of SARS-CoV-2 mutations has led to an unprecedented increase in COVID-19 incidence worldwide. Currently, vaccination is considered to be the best available solution to control the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, public opposition to vaccination persists in many countries, which can lead to increased COVID-19 caseloads and hence greater opportunities for vaccine-evasive mutant strains to arise. To determine the extent that public opinion regarding vaccination can induce or hamper the emergence of new variants, we develop a model that couples a compartmental disease transmission framework featuring two strains of SARS-CoV-2 with game theoretical dynamics on whether or not to vaccinate. We combine semi-stochastic and deterministic simulations to explore the effect of mutation probability, perceived cost of receiving vaccines, and perceived risks of infection on the emergence and spread of mutant SARS-CoV-2 strains. We find that decreasing the perceived costs of being vaccinated and increasing the perceived risks of infection (that is, decreasing vaccine hesitation) will decrease the possibility of vaccine-resistant mutant strains becoming established by about fourfold for intermediate mutation rates. Conversely, we find increasing vaccine hesitation to cause both higher probability of mutant strains emerging and more wild-type cases after the mutant strain has appeared. We also find that once a new variant has emerged, perceived risk of being infected by the original variant plays a much larger role than perceptions of the new variant in determining future outbreak characteristics. Furthermore, we find that rapid vaccination under non-pharmaceutical interventions is a highly effective strategy for preventing new variant emergence, due to interaction effects between non-pharmaceutical interventions and public support for vaccination. Our findings indicate that policies that combine combating vaccine-related misinformation with non-pharmaceutical interventions (such as reducing social contact) will be the most effective for avoiding the establishment of harmful new variants.
SARS-CoV-2 突变的连续出现导致全球 COVID-19 发病率空前增加。目前,接种疫苗被认为是控制当前 COVID-19 大流行的最佳方法。然而,许多国家仍存在公众对接种疫苗的反对意见,这可能导致 COVID-19 病例增加,从而为逃避疫苗的变异株提供更多机会。为了确定公众对疫苗接种的看法在多大程度上可以诱导或阻碍新变体的出现,我们开发了一个模型,该模型将具有两种 SARS-CoV-2 株的隔室疾病传播框架与是否接种疫苗的博弈论动态相结合。我们结合半随机和确定性模拟来探索突变概率、接种疫苗的感知成本和感染的感知风险对新 SARS-CoV-2 变异株的出现和传播的影响。我们发现,降低接种疫苗的感知成本和增加感染的感知风险(即降低疫苗犹豫)将使具有中等突变率的疫苗抗性突变株建立的可能性降低约四倍。相反,我们发现增加疫苗犹豫会导致突变株出现的可能性更高,并且在突变株出现后野生型病例更多。我们还发现,一旦新变体出现,感染原始变体的感知风险比新变体的感知风险在确定未来爆发特征方面发挥更大作用。此外,我们发现,在非药物干预措施下快速接种疫苗是预防新变体出现的一种非常有效的策略,这是由于非药物干预措施和公众对接种疫苗的支持之间的相互作用。我们的研究结果表明,将打击与疫苗相关的错误信息与非药物干预措施(如减少社交接触)相结合的政策将是避免建立有害新变体的最有效政策。