Pan Dan, Chen Yiqun, Kong Fanbin
School of Economics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang, Jiangxi, 330013, China.
School of Economics and Management, Zhejiang A&F University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 311330, China.
Heliyon. 2023 Apr 29;9(5):e15964. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e15964. eCollection 2023 May.
The effectiveness of place-based policies on carbon emission is controversial, and particularly the mechanism behind its effectiveness is unknown. We treat China's Old Revolutionary Development Program (ORDP)- a large-scale and novel type of place-based policy targeted at undeveloped regions, as a natural experiment to estimate ORDP's impact on carbon emission. Employing the panel data of 110 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2019, we perform a time-varying difference-in-differences (DID) study and discover that ORDP leads to an average of 26.7% increase in carbon emission and this effect takes a period to emerge and is not sustainable in the long term. Three mechanisms that may result in such impact are that ORDP improves economic development, changes industrial structure, and decreases technological progress. Further heterogeneity analysis indicates that ORDP results in a greater increased impact on carbon emission in old revolutionary cities that are located in western China compared to those located in central and eastern China.
基于地点的政策对碳排放的有效性存在争议，尤其是其有效性背后的机制尚不清楚。我们将中国的老革命根据地发展计划（ORDP）——一项针对欠发达地区的大规模新型基于地点的政策——视为一项自然实验，以估计ORDP对碳排放的影响。利用2010年至2019年中国110个地级市的面板数据，我们进行了时变双重差分（DID）研究，发现ORDP导致碳排放平均增加26.7%，这种影响需要一段时间才能显现，且从长期来看是不可持续的。可能导致这种影响的三种机制是，ORDP促进了经济发展、改变了产业结构并降低了技术进步。进一步的异质性分析表明，与位于中部和东部的老革命城市相比，位于中国西部的老革命城市中，ORDP对碳排放的增加影响更大。
