Wade Stephen, Weber Marianne F, Sarich Peter, Caruana Michael, Watts Christina, Vaneckova Pavla, Ngo Preston, Cressman Sonya, Scollo Michelle, Banks Emily, Gartner Coral E, Grogan Paul B, Blakely Tony, Tammemagi Martin C, Canfell Karen
The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
The Daffodil Centre, The University of Sydney, a Joint Venture with Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
Tob Control. 2024 Sep 25;33(5):641-647. doi: 10.1136/tc-2022-057624.
To compare 50-year forecasts of Australian tobacco smoking rates in relation to trends in smoking initiation and cessation and in relation to a national target of ≤5% adult daily prevalence by 2030.
A compartmental model of Australian population daily smoking, calibrated to the observed smoking status of 229 523 participants aged 20-99 years in 26 surveys (1962-2016) by age, sex and birth year (1910-1996), estimated smoking prevalence to 2066 using Australian Bureau of Statistics 50-year population predictions. Prevalence forecasts were compared across scenarios in which smoking initiation and cessation trends from 2017 were continued, kept constant or reversed.
At the end of the observation period in 2016, model-estimated daily smoking prevalence was 13.7% (90% equal-tailed interval (EI) 13.4%-14.0%). When smoking initiation and cessation rates were held constant, daily smoking prevalence reached 5.2% (90% EI 4.9%-5.5%) after 50 years, in 2066. When initiation and cessation rates continued their trajectory downwards and upwards, respectively, daily smoking prevalence reached 5% by 2039 (90% EI 2037-2041). The greatest progress towards the 5% goal came from eliminating initiation among younger cohorts, with the target met by 2037 (90% EI 2036-2038) in the most optimistic scenario. Conversely, if initiation and cessation rates reversed to 2007 levels, estimated prevalence was 9.1% (90% EI 8.8%-9.4%) in 2066.
A 5% adult daily smoking prevalence target cannot be achieved by the year 2030 based on current trends. Urgent investment in concerted strategies that prevent smoking initiation and facilitate cessation is necessary to achieve 5% prevalence by 2030.
比较对澳大利亚吸烟率的50年预测，该预测与吸烟开始和戒烟趋势相关，并与到2030年成人每日吸烟率≤5%的国家目标相关。
采用澳大利亚人口每日吸烟的房室模型，通过年龄、性别和出生年份（1910 - 1996年）对1962 - 2016年期间26项调查中229523名20 - 99岁参与者的观察吸烟状况进行校准，并利用澳大利亚统计局的50年人口预测估计到2066年的吸烟流行率。在2017年之后吸烟开始和戒烟趋势持续、保持不变或逆转的不同情景下，对流行率预测进行了比较。
在2016年观察期结束时，模型估计的每日吸烟流行率为13.7%（90%等尾区间（EI）13.4% - 14.0%）。当吸烟开始和戒烟率保持不变时，50年后，即2066年，每日吸烟流行率达到5.2%（90% EI 4.9% - 5.5%）。当开始率和戒烟率分别继续其下降和上升轨迹时，到2039年每日吸烟流行率达到5%（90% EI 2037 - 2041）。朝着5%目标取得的最大进展来自消除年轻队列中的吸烟开始行为，在最乐观的情景下，到2037年（90% EI 2036 - 2038）实现了该目标。相反，如果开始率和戒烟率逆转至2007年的水平，预计到2066年流行率为9.1%（90% EI 8.8% - 9.4%）。
基于当前趋势，到2030年无法实现5%的成人每日吸烟流行率目标。要在2030年实现5%的流行率，迫切需要对预防吸烟开始和促进戒烟的协同策略进行投资。
