Host, environment, and anthropogenic factors drive landscape dynamics of an environmentally transmitted pathogen: Sarcoptic mange in the bare-nosed wombat.

Understanding the spatial dynamics and drivers of wildlife pathogens is constrained by sampling logistics, with implications for advancing the field of landscape epidemiology and targeted allocation of management resources. However, visually apparent wildlife diseases, when combined with remote-surveillance and distribution modelling technologies, present an opportunity to overcome this landscape-scale problem. Here, we investigated dynamics and drivers of landscape-scale wildlife disease, using clinical signs of sarcoptic mange (caused by Sarcoptes scabiei) in its bare-nosed wombat (BNW; Vombatus ursinus) host. We used 53,089 camera-trap observations from over 3261 locations across the 68,401 km area of Tasmania, Australia, combined with landscape data and ensemble species distribution modelling (SDM). We investigated: (1) landscape variables predicted to drive habitat suitability of the host; (2) host and landscape variables associated with clinical signs of disease in the host; and (3) predicted locations and environmental conditions at greatest risk of disease occurrence, including some Bass Strait islands where BNW translocations are proposed. We showed that the Tasmanian landscape, and ecosystems therein, are nearly ubiquitously suited to BNWs. Only high mean annual precipitation reduced habitat suitability for the host. In contrast, clinical signs of sarcoptic mange disease in BNWs were widespread, but heterogeneously distributed across the landscape. Mange (which is environmentally transmitted in BNWs) was most likely to be observed in areas of increased host habitat suitability, lower annual precipitation, near sources of freshwater and where topographic roughness was minimal (e.g. human modified landscapes, such as farmland and intensive land-use areas, shrub and grass lands). Thus, a confluence of host, environmental and anthropogenic variables appear to influence the risk of environmental transmission of S. scabiei. We identified that the Bass Strait Islands are highly suitable for BNWs and predicted a mix of high and low suitability for the pathogen. This study is the largest spatial assessment of sarcoptic mange in any host species, and advances understanding of the landscape epidemiology of environmentally transmitted S. scabiei. This research illustrates how host-pathogen co-suitability can be useful for allocating management resources in the landscape.