School of Physical Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
J Biol Dyn. 2022 Dec;16(1):144-159. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2061614.
Understanding the spread of pathogens through the environment is critical to a fuller comprehension of disease dynamics. However, many mathematical models of disease dynamics ignore spatial effects. We seek to expand knowledge around the interaction between the bare-nosed wombat () and sarcoptic mange (etiologic agent ), by extending an aspatial mathematical model to include spatial variation. was found to move through our modelled region as a spatio-temporal travelling wave, leaving behind pockets of localized host extinction, consistent with field observations. The speed of infection spread was also comparable with field research. Our model predicts that the inclusion of spatial dynamics leads to the survival and recovery of affected wombat populations when an aspatial model predicts extinction. Collectively, this research demonstrates how environmentally transmitted can result in travelling wave dynamics, and that inclusion of spatial variation reveals a more resilient host population than aspatial modelling approaches.
了解病原体通过环境的传播对于更全面地理解疾病动态至关重要。然而，许多疾病动态的数学模型忽略了空间效应。我们试图通过将一个非空间数学模型扩展到包括空间变化，来扩展对裸鼻袋熊（）和痒螨（病原体）之间相互作用的认识。研究发现，通过我们的模型区域的传播是一种时空传播波，留下局部宿主灭绝的口袋，这与野外观察一致。感染传播的速度也与野外研究相当。我们的模型预测，当非空间模型预测灭绝时，包含空间动态会导致受感染的袋熊种群的存活和恢复。总的来说，这项研究表明，环境传播的如何导致传播波动态，并且包含空间变化揭示了比非空间建模方法更有弹性的宿主种群。
