Spatio-temporal changes in fractional vegetation cover and the driving forces during 2001-2020 in the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains, China.

This study aims to understand the factors and mechanisms influencing the spatio-temporal changes of fractional vegetation cover (FVC) in the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains. The MOD13Q1 product data between June and September (peak of plants growing) during the 2001-2020 period was incorporated into the pixel dichotomy model to calculate the vegetation cover changes. Then, the principal component analysis method was used to identify the primary driving factors affecting the change in vegetation cover from the natural, human, and economic perspectives. Finally, the partial correlation coefficients of FVC with temperature and precipitation were further calculated based on the pixel scale. The findings indicate that (1) FVC in the northern slopes of the Tianshan Mountains ranged from 0.37 to 0.47 during the 2001-2020 period, with an obvious inter-annual variation and an overall upward trend of about 0.4484/10 a. Although the vegetation cover had some changes over time, it was generally stable, and the area of strong variation only accounted for 0.58% of the total. (2) The five grades of vegetation cover were distributed spatially similarly, but the area-weighted gravity center for each vegetation class shifted significantly. The FVC under different land use/land cover types and elevations was obviously different, and as elevation increased, vegetation coverage presented a trend of a "∩"-shape change. (3) According to the results of principal component analysis, human activities, economic growth, and natural climate were the main driving factors that caused the changes in vegetation cover, and the cumulative contribution of the three reached 89.278%. In addition, when it came to climatic factors, precipitation had a greater driving force on the vegetation cover change, followed by temperature and sunshine hours. (4) Overall, precipitation and temperature were correlated positively with FVC, with the average correlation coefficient values of 0.089 and 0.135, respectively. Locally, the correlations vary greatly under different LULC and altitudes. This research can provide some scientific basis and reference for the vegetation evolution pattern and ecological civilization construction in the region.