Department of Statistics, The Islamia University of Bahawlapur, Bahawlapur, Pakistan.
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Energy and Natural Resources, Sunyani, Ghana.
PLoS One. 2023 May 25;18(5):e0285854. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0285854. eCollection 2023.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have become a critical aspect of the economic and sustainable development indicators of every country. In Pakistan, where there is a substantial increase in the population, industrialization, and demand for electricity production from different resources, the fear of an increase in CO2 emissions cannot be ignored. This study explores the link that betwixt CO2 emissions with different significant economic indicators in Pakistan from 1960 to 2018 using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) modelling technique. We implemented the covariance proportion, coefficient of determination, the Durbin Watson D statistics, analysis of variance (ANOVA), variance inflating factor (VIF), the Breusch-Pagan test, the Theil's inequality, the root mean quare error (RMSE), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and the mean absolute error (MAE) for the diagnostics, efficiency, and validity of our model. Our results showed a significant association between increased CO2 emissions and increased electricity production from oil, gas, and other sources. An increase in electricity production from coal resources was seen to have resulted in a decrease in CO2 emissions. We observed that an increase in the gross domestic product (GDP) and population growth significantly contributed to the increased CO2 emissions. The increment in CO2 emissions resulting from industrial growth was not significant. The increment in CO2 emissions in the contemporary year is significantly associated with the preceding year's increase. The rate of increase was very alarming, a sign that no serious efforts have been channelled in this regard to reduce this phenomenon. We call for policy dialogue to devise energy-saving and CO2 emission reduction strategies to minimize the impact of climate change on industrialization, population growth, and GDP growth without deterring economic and human growth. Electricity production from different sources with no or minimal CO2 emissions should be adopted. We also recommend rigorous tree planting nationwide to help reduce the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere as well as environmental pollution.
二氧化碳（CO2）排放已成为每个国家经济和可持续发展指标的关键方面。在巴基斯坦，人口、工业化和对不同资源发电的需求大幅增加，因此不能忽视 CO2 排放增加的担忧。本研究使用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型技术，探讨了 1960 年至 2018 年期间巴基斯坦 CO2 排放与不同重要经济指标之间的关系。我们实施了协方差比例、决定系数、杜宾-沃森 D 统计量、方差分析（ANOVA）、方差膨胀因子（VIF）、布雷施-佩甘检验、泰尔不平等系数、均方根误差（RMSE）、平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）和平均绝对误差（MAE），以评估我们模型的诊断、效率和有效性。我们的结果表明，CO2 排放的增加与石油、天然气和其他来源的电力生产的增加之间存在显著关联。煤炭资源的电力生产增加被认为导致 CO2 排放减少。我们观察到，国内生产总值（GDP）和人口增长的增加显著导致 CO2 排放的增加。工业增长导致的 CO2 排放增加并不显著。当年 CO2 排放的增加与前一年的增加显著相关。增长率非常惊人，这表明在这方面没有采取认真的措施来减少这种现象。我们呼吁进行政策对话，制定节能和减少 CO2 排放的策略，以尽量减少气候变化对工业化、人口增长和 GDP 增长的影响，同时不阻碍经济和人类增长。应采用不同来源的零排放或低排放的电力生产。我们还建议在全国范围内进行严格的植树造林，以帮助降低大气中 CO2 的浓度并减少环境污染。
