Wang Rui, Chang Ying, Han Peng, Miao Miao, Zeng Zhiyi, Shi Haixia, Li Danning, Liu Lifang, Su Youjin
Department of Earth and Space Science, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China.
Institute of Mining Engineering, BGRIMM Technology Group, Beijing 100160, China.
Entropy (Basel). 2023 May 6;25(5):759. doi: 10.3390/e25050759.
One important question in earthquake prediction is whether a moderate or large earthquake will be followed by an even bigger one. Through temporal -value evolution analysis, the traffic light system can be used to estimate if an earthquake is a foreshock. However, the traffic light system does not take into account the uncertainty of -values when they constitute a criterion. In this study, we propose an optimization of the traffic light system with the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and bootstrap. The traffic light signals are controlled by the significance level of the difference in -value between the sample and the background rather than an arbitrary constant. We applied the optimized traffic light system to the 2021 Yangbi earthquake sequence, which could be explicitly recognized as foreshock-mainshock-aftershock using the temporal and spatial variations in -values. In addition, we used a new statistical parameter related to the distance between earthquakes to track earthquake nucleation features. We also confirmed that the optimized traffic light system works on a high-resolution catalog that includes small-magnitude earthquakes. The comprehensive consideration of -value, significance probability, and seismic clustering might improve the reliability of earthquake risk judgment.
地震预测中的一个重要问题是，一次中等或大地震之后是否会接着发生更大的地震。通过时间值演化分析，交通灯系统可用于估计一场地震是否为前震。然而，当这些值构成一个判据时，交通灯系统并未考虑其不确定性。在本研究中，我们提出用赤池信息准则（AIC）和自助法对交通灯系统进行优化。交通灯信号由样本与背景之间时间值差异的显著性水平控制，而非由任意常数控制。我们将优化后的交通灯系统应用于2021年漾濞地震序列，利用时间值的时空变化，该序列可被明确识别为前震-主震-余震序列。此外，我们使用了一个与地震间距离相关的新统计参数来追踪地震孕育特征。我们还证实，优化后的交通灯系统在包含小震级地震的高分辨率目录上也有效。综合考虑时间值、显著性概率和地震聚类情况可能会提高地震风险判断的可靠性。
