School of Public Economics & Administration, Shanghai University of Finance & Economics, Shanghai, 200433, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Jul;30(31):77262-77284. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-27801-9. Epub 2023 May 31.
How the transformation of trade patterns affects carbon emissions is an important topic in the field of trade and the environment. Based on the panel data of Chinese cities from 2000 to 2016, this paper uses fixed effect model, instrumental variable model and threshold estimation model to investigate the impact of the transformation of export trade patterns on carbon emissions and its internal mechanism. We find that during the investigation period, the transformation of export trade pattern has a significant "U"-shaped nonlinear impact on carbon emissions, and the research results still hold after a series of robustness checks and instrumental variable estimation; through the mechanism analysis of the threshold effect, it is found that in the process of the impact of trade patterns transformation on carbon emissions, there are double thresholds for energy structure transition; the nonlinear impact of export trade pattern transformation on carbon emissions has significant heterogeneity in different regions, city categories, and different periods; the mechanism analysis results show that industrial structure upgrading, industrial co-agglomeration, and green technology innovation are the main paths that the transformation of export trade patterns affects carbon emissions. Under the dual goals of fulfilling China's commitment to "carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060" and implementing corporate social governance to promote green and sustainable development, this paper will provide suggestions for realizing the goal of low-carbon emission reduction from the perspective of the transformation of export trade patterns.
贸易模式转型如何影响碳排放是贸易与环境领域的一个重要议题。本文基于 2000-2016 年中国城市面板数据，运用固定效应模型、工具变量模型和门槛估计模型，考察了出口贸易模式转型对碳排放的影响及其内在机制。研究发现，在考察期间，出口贸易模式的转型对碳排放具有显著的“U”型非线性影响，且在经过一系列稳健性检验和工具变量估计后，研究结果仍然成立；通过门槛效应的机制分析发现，在贸易模式转型影响碳排放的过程中，能源结构转型存在双重门槛；出口贸易模式转型对碳排放的非线性影响在不同地区、城市类别和不同时期具有显著的异质性；机制分析结果表明，产业结构升级、产业协同集聚和绿色技术创新是出口贸易模式转型影响碳排放的主要路径。在履行中国“2030 年碳达峰、2060 年碳中和”承诺和实施企业社会责任以促进绿色可持续发展的双重目标下，本文将从出口贸易模式转型的角度为实现低碳减排目标提供建议。
