Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.
Nat Commun. 2023 Jun 3;14(1):3219. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-38980-x.
Extreme atmospheric rivers (EARs) are responsible for most of the severe precipitation and disastrous flooding along the coastal regions in midlatitudes. However, the current non-eddy-resolving climate models severely underestimate (~50%) EARs, casting significant uncertainties on their future projections. Here, using an unprecedented set of eddy-resolving high-resolution simulations from the Community Earth System Model simulations, we show that the models' ability of simulating EARs is significantly improved (despite a slight overestimate of ~10%) and the EARs are projected to increase almost linearly with temperature warming. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 warming scenario, there will be a global doubling or more of the occurrence, integrated water vapor transport and precipitation associated with EARs, and a more concentrated tripling for the landfalling EARs, by the end of the 21st century. We further demonstrate that the coupling relationship between EARs and storms will be reduced in a warming climate, potentially influencing the predictability of future EARs.
极端大气河流（EARs）是造成中纬度沿海地区大部分严重降水和灾难性洪水的主要原因。然而，目前的非涡旋分辨气候模型严重低估了 (~50%) EARs，这给它们的未来预测带来了重大不确定性。在这里，我们使用来自地球系统模型模拟的一套前所未有的涡旋分辨高分辨率模拟，表明模型模拟 EARs 的能力有了显著提高（尽管略有高估约 10%），并且预计 EARs 将几乎呈线性增加与温度变暖。在代表性浓度路径 8.5 变暖情景下，到 21 世纪末，EARs 相关的发生频率、综合水汽输送和降水将增加一倍或更多，登陆 EARs 的增幅将增加两倍以上。我们进一步表明，在变暖的气候中，EARs 和风暴之间的耦合关系将会减少，这可能会影响未来 EARs 的可预测性。
