Duan Jing, Li Yuanlong, Lyu Yilong, Jing Zhao, Wang Fan
Key Laboratory of Ocean Observation and Forecasting and Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Qingdao, China.
Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.
Nat Commun. 2025 Jan 14;16(1):668. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-56005-7.
Storage of anthropogenic heat in the oceans is spatially inhomogeneous, impacting regional climates and human societies. Climate models project enhanced heat storage in the mid-latitude North Pacific (MNP) and much weaker storage in the tropical Pacific. However, the observed heat storage during the past half-century shows a more complex pattern, with limited warming in the MNP and enhanced warming in the northwest tropical Pacific. Here, based on observational datasets, ocean model experiments, and climate models, we show that the emergence of human-induced heat storage is likely postponed in the North Pacific by natural variability until the late-21 century. Specifically, phase shifts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation have vitally contributed to trends in the North Pacific winds during recent decades. Changes in surface winds drove meridional heat redistribution via Rossby wave dynamics, leading to regional warming and cooling structures and a more complex historical heat storage than models predict. Despite this, enhanced anthropogenic warming has already been emerging in marginal seas along the North Pacific basin rim, for which we shall prepare for the pressing consequences such as increasing marine heatwaves.
海洋中人为热的储存存在空间不均匀性，影响着区域气候和人类社会。气候模型预测，中纬度北太平洋（MNP）的热储存将增强，而热带太平洋的热储存则弱得多。然而，过去半个世纪观测到的热储存呈现出更为复杂的模式，MNP的变暖有限，而西北热带太平洋的变暖增强。在此，基于观测数据集、海洋模型实验和气候模型，我们表明，北太平洋人为热储存的出现可能因自然变率而推迟到21世纪末。具体而言，太平洋年代际振荡的相位变化对近几十年来北太平洋风的趋势起到了至关重要的作用。表面风的变化通过罗斯贝波动力学驱动了经向热再分布，导致了区域变暖和变冷结构以及比模型预测更为复杂的历史热储存。尽管如此，北太平洋盆地边缘的边缘海已经出现了增强的人为变暖，对此我们应准备应对诸如海洋热浪增加等紧迫后果。
