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低碳能源政策有利于特大城市的气候变化缓解和空气污染物减排:以中国深圳为例的实证研究。

Low-carbon energy policies benefit climate change mitigation and air pollutant reduction in megacities: An empirical examination of Shenzhen, China.

作者信息

Jiang Jingjing, Ye Bin, Sun Zhuoluo, Zeng Zhenzhong, Yang Xin

机构信息

School of Economics and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology (Shenzhen), Shenzhen 518055, China.

School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Sep 20;892:164644. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164644. Epub 2023 Jun 2.

Abstract

The low-carbon transformation of energy system has great significance for megacities to mitigate climate change, which brings co-benefits to improve urban air quality. Taking China's megacity, Shenzhen, as an example, this study examines the potential of wide-ranging energy policies in urban GHG emission reduction and the associated synergistic effect on decreasing major air pollutant emissions. Based on the low emissions analysis platform (LEAP) model, the major results show that an effective implementation of newly emerging energy policies could help cap GHG emissions of Shenzhen in 2025 and nearly halve them by 2035, which would contribute substantially to reducing urban air pollutant emissions. At the sectoral level, the synergistic effect of emission reduction would be the strongest in the transportation sector, followed by the electricity and manufacturing sectors, while it is not significant in the building sector. Moreover, all policies on energy efficiency improvement and demand management that reduce fossil energy consumption show synergistic effects on decreasing air pollutants, while policies on energy structural optimization show differentiated impacts across SO, NOx, VOCs, and PM. Urban managers should prioritize energy policies with strong synergistic effects and specifically promote the wide application of rooftop PV system and deep electrification of road transportation.

摘要

能源系统的低碳转型对于特大城市缓解气候变化具有重大意义,这能带来改善城市空气质量的协同效益。以中国特大城市深圳为例,本研究考察了一系列能源政策在城市温室气体减排方面的潜力以及对减少主要空气污染物排放的相关协同效应。基于低排放分析平台(LEAP)模型,主要结果表明,有效实施新兴能源政策有助于在2025年控制深圳的温室气体排放,并在2035年使其减半,这将极大有助于减少城市空气污染物排放。在部门层面,减排的协同效应在交通部门最强,其次是电力和制造业部门,而在建筑部门则不显著。此外,所有降低化石能源消耗的能源效率提升和需求管理政策都对减少空气污染物具有协同效应,而能源结构优化政策对二氧化硫、氮氧化物、挥发性有机物和颗粒物的影响则有所不同。城市管理者应优先考虑具有强协同效应的能源政策,并特别推动屋顶光伏系统的广泛应用和道路运输的深度电气化。

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