Xu Meng, Wang Minghao, Zhao Mengdan, Weng Zhixiong, Tong Fan, Pan Yujie, Liu Xin, Xie Yang
School of Management, Wuhan Institute of Technology, Wuhan 430205, China.
China Institute of Marine Technology and Economy, Beijing 100081, China.
iScience. 2024 May 11;27(6):109966. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.109966. eCollection 2024 Jun 21.
Ambitious action plans have been launched to address climate change and air pollution. Through coupling the IMED|CGE, GAINS, and IMED|HEL models, this study investigate the impacts of implementing carbon neutrality and clean air policies on the energy-environment-health-economy chain in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Henan-Shandong-Shanxi region of China. Results show that Shandong holds the largest reduction in energy consumption and carbon emissions toward the 1.5°C target. Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are of particularly prominent pollutant reduction potential. Synergistic effects of carbon reduction on decreasing PM concentration will increase in the future, specifically in energy-intensive regions. Co-deployment of carbon reduction and end-of-pipe technologies are beneficial to decrease PM-related mortalities and economic loss by 4.7-12.9% in 2050. Provincial carbon reduction cost will be higher than monetary health benefits after 2030, indicating that more zero-carbon technologies should be developed. Our findings provide scientific enlightenment on policymaking toward achieving carbon reduction and pollution mitigation from multiple perspectives.
为应对气候变化和空气污染，已启动了雄心勃勃的行动计划。通过耦合IMED|CGE、GAINS和IMED|HEL模型，本研究调查了实施碳中和和清洁空气政策对中国京津冀鲁豫晋地区能源-环境-健康-经济链的影响。结果表明，山东在实现1.5°C目标方面能源消耗和碳排放减少量最大。山东、河南和河北的污染物减排潜力尤为突出。未来，碳减排对降低PM浓度的协同效应将会增强，特别是在能源密集型地区。到2050年，碳减排与末端治理技术的协同部署有利于将与PM相关的死亡率和经济损失降低4.7%-12.9%。2030年后，省级碳减排成本将高于货币化的健康效益，这表明应开发更多的零碳技术。我们的研究结果为从多个角度实现碳减排和污染缓解的政策制定提供了科学启示。
