School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China.
School of Economics and Management, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China; Research Center for China's Oil and Gas Industry Development, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China; Institute of Carbon Neutrality and Innovative Energy Development, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China.
Waste Manag. 2023 Aug 1;168:1-13. doi: 10.1016/j.wasman.2023.05.043. Epub 2023 Jun 3.
Reducing carbon emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment is non-negligible for China to meet its "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" targets. It is critical to objectively evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns and drivers of carbon emissions from MSW treatment. This study estimates the carbon emissions from MSW treatment across 30 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2020. The joint approach LMDI-PDA model is further used to refine the impact of policy on carbon emission changes from technical and efficiency perspectives, while considering the socio-economic factors. The results showed that carbon emissions from MSW treatment grew significantly until peaking at 202.05Mt COe in 2017 and then stabilized, finally dropping to 165.10 Mt COe in 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19. Compared with the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, the MSW emissions intensity declined significantly during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, indicating the effective implementation of waste emission control measures. Furthermore, the slowdown in the growth of national emissions was primarily driven by technological advances in waste treatment. Technical efficiency change effect, MSW generation intensity effect, economic scale effect, and population scale effect impeded national emissions decline. Since the performance of various drivers varied greatly in different provinces, a cluster analysis was conducted to provide policy recommendations in provinces with similar characteristics. Both the methods and results of this study can provide better decision-making support for national and provincial carbon emissions control policies targeting MSW treatment.
减少城市固体废物（MSW）处理产生的碳排放对中国实现“碳峰值和碳中和”目标至关重要。客观评估 MSW 处理产生的碳排放的时空格局和驱动因素至关重要。本研究估计了 2011 年至 2020 年中国 30 个省份的 MSW 处理产生的碳排放。进一步采用联合方法 LMDI-PDA 模型，从技术和效率角度细化政策对碳排放变化的影响，同时考虑社会经济因素。结果表明，MSW 处理产生的碳排放直到 2017 年达到 202.05Mt COe 的峰值后才开始显著增长，然后稳定下来，最后由于 COVID-19 的影响，在 2020 年降至 165.10Mt COe。与“十二五”期间相比，“十三五”期间 MSW 排放强度显著下降，表明废物排放控制措施得到了有效实施。此外，全国排放量增长放缓主要是由于废物处理技术的进步。技术效率变化效应、MSW 产生强度效应、经济规模效应和人口规模效应阻碍了全国排放量的下降。由于不同省份的各种驱动因素的表现差异很大，因此进行了聚类分析，为具有相似特征的省份提供政策建议。本研究的方法和结果可以为国家和省级针对 MSW 处理的碳排放控制政策提供更好的决策支持。
