A dynamical model of TGF-β activation in asthmatic airways.

Excessive activation of the regulatory cytokine transforming growth factor $\beta $ (TGF-$\beta $) via contraction of airway smooth muscle (ASM) is associated with the development of asthma. In this study, we develop an ordinary differential equation model that describes the change in density of the key airway wall constituents, ASM and extracellular matrix (ECM), and their interplay with subcellular signalling pathways leading to the activation of TGF-$\beta $. We identify bistable parameter regimes where there are two positive steady states, corresponding to either reduced or elevated TGF-$\beta $ concentration, with the latter leading additionally to increased ASM and ECM density. We associate the former with a healthy homeostatic state and the latter with a diseased (asthmatic) state. We demonstrate that external stimuli, inducing TGF-$\beta $ activation via ASM contraction (mimicking an asthmatic exacerbation), can perturb the system irreversibly from the healthy state to the diseased one. We show that the properties of the stimuli, such as their frequency or strength, and the clearance of surplus active TGF-$\beta $, are important in determining the long-term dynamics and the development of disease. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of this model in investigating temporal responses to bronchial thermoplasty, a therapeutic intervention in which ASM is ablated by applying thermal energy to the airway wall. The model predicts the parameter-dependent threshold damage required to obtain irreversible reduction in ASM content, suggesting that certain asthma phenotypes are more likely to benefit from this intervention.