School of Business, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu, 610059, China.
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China; School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China; Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management, Beijing, 100081, China; Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing, Beijing, 100081, China.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Sep 15;342:118309. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118309. Epub 2023 Jun 7.
Phasing out thermal power plants is vital to combatting climate change. Less attention has been given to provincial-level thermal power plants, which are implementers of the policy of phasing out backward production capacity. To improve energy efficiency and reduce negative environmental impacts, this study proposes a bottom-up cost-optimal model to explore technology-oriented low-carbon development pathways for China's provincial-level thermal power plants. Taking 16 types of thermal power technologies into consideration, this study investigates the impacts of power demand, policy implementation, and technology maturity on energy consumption, pollutant emissions, and carbon emissions of power plants. The results show that an enhanced policy combined with a reduced thermal power demand would peak carbon emissions of the power industry at approximately 4.1 GtCO in 2023. Meanwhile, most of the inefficient coal-fired power technologies should be eliminated by 2030. Carbon capture and storage technology should be gradually promoted in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Jilin after 2025. Energy-saving upgrades on 600 MW and 1000 MW ultra-supercritical technologies should be emphatically carried out in Anhui, Guangdong, and Zhejiang. By 2050, all thermal power will come from ultra-supercritical and other advanced technologies.
逐步淘汰火电厂对于应对气候变化至关重要。然而，省级火电厂作为淘汰落后产能政策的执行者，却较少受到关注。为了提高能源效率，减少负面环境影响，本研究提出了一种自下而上的成本最优模型，以探索中国省级火电厂面向技术的低碳发展路径。该研究考虑了 16 种火力发电技术，研究了电力需求、政策实施和技术成熟度对电厂能源消耗、污染物排放和碳排放的影响。结果表明，强化政策与降低火力发电需求相结合，可使电力行业的碳排放峰值在 2023 年达到约 41 亿吨。同时，到 2030 年，大部分低效燃煤发电技术应被淘汰。碳捕集与封存技术应在 2025 年后逐步在新疆、内蒙古、宁夏和吉林推广。到 2050 年，所有的火力发电都将来自超超临界和其他先进技术。
