Department of Environmental Engineering, School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, PR China.
Department of Environmental Engineering, School of Energy and Environmental Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing 100083, PR China; Beijing Key Laboratory of Resource-oriented Treatment of Industrial Pollutants, Beijing 100083, PR China.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Sep 15;891:164580. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164580. Epub 2023 Jun 5.
The cement industry is one of the most energy- and carbon-intensive industries in China, and it is difficult to attain deep decarbonization toward carbon neutrality. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the historical emission trend and future decarbonization pathway of China's cement industry, in which the opportunities and challenges of key technologies, carbon mitigation potential and co-benefits are examined. The results showed that from 1990 to 2020, the carbon dioxide (CO) emissions of China's cement industry experienced a growing trend, while air pollutant emissions were largely decoupled from cement production growth. Between 2020 and 2050, China's cement production may decrease by over 40 %, and CO emissions will decline from 1331 Tg to 387 Tg under the Low scenario given a combination of certain mitigation measures, including energy efficiency improvement, alternative energy sources, alternative materials, carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology, and new cement. Before 2030, carbon reduction under the low scenario is determined by factors including energy efficiency improvement, alternative energy sources, and alternative materials. Afterward, CCUS technology will become increasingly imperative and conducive to deep decarbonization of the cement industry. After implementation of all the above measures, 387 Tg of CO will still be emitted by the cement industry in 2050. As such, improving the quality and service life of buildings and infrastructure as well as the carbonation of cement materials has a positive effect on carbon reduction. Finally, carbon mitigation measures in the cement industry can provide air quality improvement co-benefits.
水泥行业是中国能源和碳排放密集型产业之一，实现碳中和目标面临深度脱碳的挑战。本文全面回顾了中国水泥行业的历史排放趋势和未来脱碳路径，探讨了关键技术的机遇和挑战、碳减排潜力和协同效益。结果表明，1990 年至 2020 年，中国水泥行业二氧化碳（CO）排放呈增长趋势，而空气污染物排放与水泥产量增长基本脱钩。在特定减排措施（包括提高能源效率、替代能源、替代材料、碳捕集、利用与封存（CCUS）技术和新型水泥）的共同作用下，2020 年至 2050 年，中国水泥产量可能下降 40%以上，CO 排放量将从 1331 万吨降至 387 万吨。在低情景下，2030 年前的碳减排主要取决于提高能源效率、替代能源和替代材料等因素。此后，CCUS 技术将变得越来越重要，有利于水泥行业深度脱碳。在实施上述所有措施后，2050 年水泥行业仍将排放 387 万吨 CO。因此，提高建筑物和基础设施的质量和使用寿命以及水泥材料的碳化对碳减排具有积极作用。最后，水泥行业的碳减排措施可以带来空气质量改善的协同效益。
