School of Earth Sciences and Resources, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing, 100083, China.
Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resource Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2019 Mar;26(7):6409-6423. doi: 10.1007/s11356-018-04081-2. Epub 2019 Jan 8.
China is the largest cement producer and carbon dioxide (CO) emitter in the world. The country has attracted too much attention in calculating and comparing its CO emissions. However, as the second largest CO emitter after the fire power industry, China's long-term cement demand and cement-related CO emission projections were not fully studied. The Chinese government, however, committed that by 2020 and 2030, China's per capita GDP of CO emissions would be lower than that in 2005 by 40-45% and 60-65%, respectively. In this paper, China's cement demand in 2030 was projected based on the population size, urbanization rate, fixed assets investment, and per capita GDP. Furthermore, decoupling study in China's cement industry was also involved based on the GDP and CO emissions during 2001-2015. We also used the diffusion rate of 12 types of CO reduction measures and two changed scenarios of clinker-to-cement ratio, to project the cement CO emission factors toward 2030 after determining the accounting scope. Meanwhile, the CO emissions of China's cement industry through 2030 were projected naturally. The results showed that China's cement output in 2030 will be approximately 2000, 1650, and 937 Mt. based on the fixed assets investment, urbanization rate, and per capita GDP respectively. The projected two scenarios cement CO emission factors were resp. 407.83 and 390.02 kg CO/t of cement which were 42.6 and 45.1% lower than that in 2005. The cement CO emissions were projected to be in the range of 366 to 818 Mt. in 2030. Additionally, China's total cement output value has been decoupling from cement CO emissions from 2012, which is mainly attributed to eliminating backward capacity, reducing excess capacity or the declining cement output. And decoupling economic from China's cement CO emissions may change to be strong or weak decoupling in the near future. As cement production is one of the factors effecting cement CO emissions, the most important measure for controlling cement CO emissions is a reasonable capacity utilization rate. It is therefore important to control the growth of cement CO emissions by regulating the capacity utilization rate within a reasonable range. Eliminating backward capacity, removing excess capacity, controlling new capacity, staggered production, and the "going global" of cement equipment can have great impacts in controlling the total amount of cement output and CO emissions.
中国是世界上最大的水泥生产国和二氧化碳（CO）排放国。该国在计算和比较其 CO 排放方面引起了太多关注。然而，作为仅次于火力发电行业的第二大 CO 排放国，中国长期的水泥需求和水泥相关 CO 排放预测并未得到充分研究。然而，中国政府承诺，到 2020 年和 2030 年，中国的人均 GDP 二氧化碳排放量将比 2005 年分别降低 40-45%和 60-65%。在本文中，根据人口规模、城市化率、固定资产投资和人均国内生产总值，预测了 2030 年中国的水泥需求。此外，还基于 2001-2015 年的 GDP 和 CO 排放量，对中国水泥行业的脱钩研究进行了研究。我们还使用了 12 种 CO 减排措施的扩散率和熟料-水泥比的两种变化情景，在确定核算范围后，对 2030 年水泥 CO 排放因子进行了预测。同时，自然预测了 2030 年中国水泥行业的 CO 排放量。结果表明，根据固定资产投资、城市化率和人均国内生产总值，2030 年中国水泥产量将分别约为 2000、1650 和 937 Mt。预测的两个情景下水泥 CO 排放因子分别为 407.83 和 390.02 kg CO/t 水泥，比 2005 年分别低 42.6%和 45.1%。2030 年水泥 CO 排放量预计在 366 至 818 Mt 之间。此外，自 2012 年以来，中国水泥总产量与水泥 CO 排放量已脱钩，这主要归因于淘汰落后产能、减少过剩产能或水泥产量下降。在不久的将来，中国水泥 CO 排放量与经济的脱钩可能会转变为强脱钩或弱脱钩。由于水泥生产是影响水泥 CO 排放的因素之一，控制水泥 CO 排放的最重要措施是合理的产能利用率。因此，通过将产能利用率控制在合理范围内，控制水泥 CO 排放的增长非常重要。淘汰落后产能、去除过剩产能、控制新增产能、错峰生产以及水泥设备“走出去”，对控制水泥总产量和 CO 排放具有重要意义。
