Yang Lishan, Hu Yu-Jie, Wang Honglei, Li Chengjiang, Tang Bao-Jun, Wang Binli, Cui Hefu
School of Management, Guizhou University, Guiyang, Guizhou, 550025, China.
School of Management, Guizhou University, Guiyang, Guizhou, 550025, China; Research Centre for Karst Region Development Strategy, Guizhou University, Guiyang, 550025, China.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Jun 15;336:117624. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117624. Epub 2023 Mar 1.
To mitigate aviation's carbon emissions of the aviation industry, the following steps are vital: accurately quantifying the carbon emission path by considering uncertainty factors, including transportation demand in the post-COVID-19 pandemic period; identifying gaps between this path and emission reduction targets; and providing mitigation measures. Some mitigation measures that can be employed by China's civil aviation industry include the gradual realization of large-scale production of sustainable aviation fuels and transition to 100% sustainable and low-carbon sources of energy. This study identified the key driving factors of carbon emissions by using the Delphi Method and set scenarios that consider uncertainty, such as aviation development and emission reduction policies. A backpropagation neural network and Monte Carlo simulation were used to quantify the carbon emission path. The study results show that China's civil aviation industry can effectively help the country achieve its carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. However, to achieve the net-zero carbon emissions goal of global aviation, China needs to reduce its emissions by approximately 82%-91% based on the optimal emission scenario. Thus, under the international net-zero target, China's civil aviation industry will face significant pressure to reduce its emissions. The use of sustainable aviation fuels is the best way to reduce aviation emissions by 2050. Moreover, in addition to the application of sustainable aviation fuel, it will be necessary to develop a new generation of aircraft introducing new materials and upgrading technology, implement additional carbon absorption measures, and make use of carbon trading markets to facilitate China's civil aviation industry's contribution to reduce climate change.
为减轻航空业的碳排放，以下步骤至关重要：通过考虑不确定性因素，包括新冠疫情后时期的运输需求，准确量化碳排放路径；确定该路径与减排目标之间的差距；并提供缓解措施。中国民用航空业可采用的一些缓解措施包括逐步实现可持续航空燃料的大规模生产，并向100%可持续和低碳能源过渡。本研究采用德尔菲法确定了碳排放的关键驱动因素，并设定了考虑不确定性的情景，如航空发展和减排政策。使用反向传播神经网络和蒙特卡罗模拟来量化碳排放路径。研究结果表明，中国民用航空业能够有效帮助国家实现碳达峰和碳中和目标。然而，为实现全球航空净零碳排放目标，基于最优排放情景，中国需要将排放量减少约82%-91%。因此，在国际净零目标下，中国民用航空业将面临巨大的减排压力。使用可持续航空燃料是到2050年减少航空排放的最佳方式。此外，除了应用可持续航空燃料外，还需要开发采用新材料和升级技术的新一代飞机，实施额外的碳吸收措施，并利用碳交易市场，以促进中国民用航空业为减少气候变化做出贡献。
