Gallick H L, Weaver D W, Sachs R J, Bouwman D L
Am Surg. 1986 Aug;52(8):434-7.
Eighty-four patients with a total of 104 admissions for intestinal obstruction who each also had a history of cancer had their records reviewed to determine what variables, if any, would help predict outcome. Multivariate discriminate analysis was used to assign the patient into one of three outcome possibilities: 1) alive and well, 2) alive with intestinal obstruction, and 3) dead. The computer accurately assigned outcome 71 per cent of the time. Twenty-four per cent of the patients had no cancer found at laparotomy, and had good results. Patients with carcinomatosis did poorly. Females fared much better than males. The natural history of patients with intestinal obstruction and cancer is that about 35 per cent leave the hospital eating normally, 20 per cent are alive but unable to eat, and 45 per cent die on the same hospital admission or shortly thereafter.
84例曾患癌症且因肠梗阻入院共104次的患者,其病历被回顾以确定哪些变量(若有)有助于预测结果。采用多变量判别分析将患者分为三种可能的结果之一:1)存活且状况良好;2)存活但有肠梗阻;3)死亡。计算机正确预测结果的时间占71%。24%的患者在剖腹手术时未发现癌症,且预后良好。有癌转移的患者预后较差。女性患者的情况比男性好得多。肠梗阻合并癌症患者的自然病程是,约35%的患者出院时饮食正常,20%的患者存活但无法进食,45%的患者在同一住院期间或此后不久死亡。