School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Jul;30(33):80261-80278. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-28118-3. Epub 2023 Jun 9.
This paper explores the spatial impact effects and spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the digital economy on urban carbon emissions (CO). Specifically, firstly, the Digital Economy Index (DEI) system of 285 cities in China was constructed and the Global Principal Component Analysis (GPCA) was applied to evaluate the digital economy level of Chinese cities. Based on spatial correlation and spatial heterogeneity, the paper explores the global spatial impact and spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the impact of digital economy on CO using spatial Durbin model (SDM) and geographic time-weighted regression (GTWR), respectively. And the mechanism variables are used to further demonstrate the mechanism effect and nonlinear characteristics of the impact of digital economy on CO. The findings indicate that (1) the advancement of the digital economy is beneficial for achieving carbon abatement goals, and the impact of the digital economy on CO mitigation remains stable across several robustness tests. (2) The spatial spillover effect of the digital economy on the impact of carbon reduction is not significant. And there is significant temporal and spatial heterogeneity in the impact of the digital economy on carbon emissions. (3) According to the mechanism analysis, the digital economy reduces carbon emissions by encouraging the development of green technologies and promoting the modernization of industrial structures. And there are non-linear characteristics of this effect. This study concludes that the digital economy can support China's goal of achieving "carbon peak and carbon neutrality." However, it is important to consider the differences in urban development over time and space. Leveraging the city's strengths to develop a digital economy in a unique way that will help achieve China's carbon reduction goals.
本文探讨了数字经济对城市碳排放（CO）的空间影响效应和时空异质性。具体而言，首先构建了中国 285 个城市的数字经济指数（DEI）系统，并采用全局主成分分析（GPCA）评估中国城市的数字经济水平。基于空间相关性和空间异质性，本文分别采用空间杜宾模型（SDM）和地理时间加权回归（GTWR）探讨了数字经济对 CO 影响的全局空间影响和时空异质性。并利用机制变量进一步论证了数字经济对 CO 影响的机制效应和非线性特征。研究结果表明：（1）数字经济的发展有利于实现碳减排目标，数字经济对 CO 减排的影响在多次稳健性检验中保持稳定；（2）数字经济对碳减排的空间溢出效应不显著，数字经济对碳排放的影响具有显著的时空异质性；（3）根据机制分析，数字经济通过鼓励绿色技术发展和推动产业结构现代化来减少碳排放，并且这种效应具有非线性特征。本研究得出结论，数字经济可以支持中国实现“碳达峰、碳中和”的目标。但需要考虑城市发展在时间和空间上的差异，利用城市的优势，以独特的方式发展数字经济，这将有助于实现中国的减排目标。
