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评估基于血清型的免疫接种对减轻登革热病毒传播的影响。

Assessing the impact of serostatus-dependent immunization on mitigating the spread of dengue virus.

机构信息

College of Mathematical Sciences, Harbin Engineering University, Harbin, 150001, Heilongjiang, China.

Laboratory of Mathematical Parallel Systems (LAMPS), Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Centre for Diseases Modelling (CDM), York University, Toronto, Canada.

出版信息

J Math Biol. 2023 Jun 11;87(1):5. doi: 10.1007/s00285-023-01944-2.

Abstract

Dengue is the most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne disease that poses great threats to public health. We propose a compartmental model with primary and secondary infection and targeted vaccination to assess the impact of serostatus-dependent immunization on mitigating the spread of dengue virus. We derive the basic reproduction number and investigate the stability and bifurcations of the disease-free equilibrium and endemic equilibria. The existence of a backward bifurcation is proved and is used to explain the threshold dynamics of the transmission. We also carry out numerical simulations and present bifurcation diagrams to reveal rich dynamics of the model such as bi-stability of the equilibria, limit cycles, and chaos. We prove the uniform persistence and global stability of the model. Sensitivity analysis suggests that mosquito control and protection from mosquito bites are still the key measures of controlling the spread of dengue virus, though serostatus-dependent immunization is implemented. Our findings provide insightful information for public health in mitigating dengue epidemics through vaccination.

摘要

登革热是由蚊子传播的最迅速传播的疾病之一,对公共卫生构成了巨大威胁。我们提出了一个具有原发性和继发性感染以及针对性疫苗接种的房室模型,以评估血清依赖性免疫接种对减轻登革热病毒传播的影响。我们推导出基本繁殖数,并研究了无病平衡点和地方病平衡点的稳定性和分歧。证明了向后分歧的存在,并利用它来解释传播的阈值动力学。我们还进行了数值模拟,并呈现了分岔图,以揭示模型的丰富动力学,如平衡点的双稳定性、极限环和混沌。我们证明了模型的一致持久性和全局稳定性。敏感性分析表明,尽管实施了血清依赖性免疫接种,但控制蚊子传播和防止蚊子叮咬仍然是控制登革热病毒传播的关键措施。我们的研究结果为通过疫苗接种减轻登革热流行提供了有见地的公共卫生信息。

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