Tang Biao, Huo Xi, Xiao Yanni, Ruan Shigui, Wu Jianhong
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, People's Republic of China.
Centre for Disease Modelling, Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, York University, Toronto, M3J 1P3, Canada.
Theor Biol Med Model. 2018 Sep 3;15(1):13. doi: 10.1186/s12976-018-0085-x.
Many vector-borne diseases co-circulate, as the viruses from the same family are also transmitted by the same vector species. For example, Zika and dengue viruses belong to the same Flavivirus family and are primarily transmitted by a common mosquito species Aedes aegypti. Zika outbreaks have also commonly occurred in dengue-endemic areas, and co-circulation and co-infection of both viruses have been reported. As recent immunological cross-reactivity studies have confirmed that convalescent plasma following dengue infection can enhance Zika infection, and as global efforts of developing dengue and Zika vaccines are intensified, it is important to examine whether and how vaccination against one disease in a large population may affect infection dynamics of another disease due to antibody-dependent enhancement.
Through a conceptual co-infection dynamics model parametrized by reported dengue and Zika epidemic and immunological cross-reactivity characteristics, we evaluate impact of a hypothetical dengue vaccination program on Zika infection dynamics in a single season when only one particular dengue serotype is involved.
We show that an appropriately designed and optimized dengue vaccination program can not only help control the dengue spread but also, counter-intuitively, reduce Zika infections. We identify optimal dengue vaccination coverages for controlling dengue and simultaneously reducing Zika infections, as well as the critical coverages exceeding which dengue vaccination will increase Zika infections.
This study based on a conceptual model shows the promise of an integrative vector-borne disease control strategy involving optimal vaccination programs, in regions where different viruses or different serotypes of the same virus co-circulate, and convalescent plasma following infection from one virus (serotype) can enhance infection against another virus (serotype). The conceptual model provides a first step towards well-designed regional and global vector-borne disease immunization programs.
许多媒介传播疾病共同流行，因为同一家族的病毒也由同一媒介物种传播。例如，寨卡病毒和登革热病毒属于同一黄病毒科，主要由常见的埃及伊蚊传播。寨卡疫情也经常在登革热流行地区发生，并且两种病毒的共同流行和共同感染已有报道。由于最近的免疫交叉反应研究证实，登革热感染后的康复期血浆可增强寨卡病毒感染，并且随着全球开发登革热和寨卡疫苗的努力不断加强，重要的是要研究在大量人群中针对一种疾病进行疫苗接种是否以及如何因抗体依赖性增强而影响另一种疾病的感染动态。
通过一个由报道的登革热和寨卡疫情及免疫交叉反应特征参数化的概念性共同感染动态模型，我们评估了一个假设的登革热疫苗接种计划在仅涉及一种特定登革热血清型的单个季节对寨卡病毒感染动态的影响。
我们表明，精心设计和优化的登革热疫苗接种计划不仅有助于控制登革热传播，而且与直觉相反，还能减少寨卡病毒感染。我们确定了控制登革热并同时减少寨卡病毒感染的最佳登革热疫苗接种覆盖率，以及超过该覆盖率登革热疫苗接种将增加寨卡病毒感染的临界覆盖率。
这项基于概念模型的研究表明，在不同病毒或同一病毒的不同血清型共同流行且一种病毒（血清型）感染后的康复期血浆可增强对另一种病毒（血清型）感染的地区，采用涉及最佳疫苗接种计划的综合媒介传播疾病控制策略具有前景。该概念模型为精心设计的区域和全球媒介传播疾病免疫计划迈出了第一步。
