School of Automobile, Chang'an University, Shangyuan Road, Xi'an 710086, Shaanxi, PR China.
School of Automobile, Chang'an University, Shangyuan Road, Xi'an 710086, Shaanxi, PR China.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Oct 1;893:164856. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.164856. Epub 2023 Jun 15.
To assess the environmental impact of promoting the use of electric vehicles in road traffic on emissions of CO and air pollution in Xi'an, China, both the proportion of electric vehicles and the power generation mix should be considered. Here, vehicle ownership in 2021 served as the baseline scenario, and the vehicle development trend through 2035 was projected. Using emission factor models for fuel vehicles and the electricity generation required for running electric vehicles, this study estimated the related pollutants' emission inventories at 81 corresponding scenarios, in which differing vehicle electrification paths were coupled with power generation mix. Further, the degree to which different vehicle electrification paths impacted the CO and air pollutant emissions was also evaluated. The results show that, to achieve the goal of peak carbon emission in the road transport sector in Xi'an by 2030, the penetration rate of electric vehicles must reach at least 40 % in 2035, and the thermal power generation rate should satisfy the necessary coupling conditions. Although reducing the thermal power generation rate could mitigate the environmental problems, we find that electric vehicle development in Xi'an during 2021-2035 would still exacerbate SO emissions despite reducing the thermal power generation rate to 10 %. Finally, to avoid exacerbating the adverse effects on public health from vehicle-related pollutants, the penetration rate of electric vehicles should be at least 40 % in 2035, at which time for the 40 %, 50 %, 60 %, and 70 % scenarios, the corresponding thermal power generation rate should not exceed 10 %, 30 %, 50 %, and 60 %. This study systematically analyzed plausible development paths of electric vehicles from the perspectives of peak carbon emissions, air pollution control, and human health, whose findings can serve as a timely and valuable reference for reducing pollution and carbon in the field of road transport.
为了评估在中国西安推广道路交通中使用电动汽车对 CO 和空气污染排放的环境影响，应同时考虑电动汽车的比例和发电组合。在这里，2021 年的汽车保有量作为基准情景，预测了到 2035 年的汽车发展趋势。利用燃油车的排放因子模型和运行电动车所需的发电量，本研究在 81 个相应情景中估算了相关污染物的排放清单，其中不同的汽车电气化路径与发电组合相结合。此外，还评估了不同的汽车电气化路径对 CO 和空气污染物排放的影响程度。结果表明，为了在 2030 年前实现西安道路交通部门的碳排放峰值目标，到 2035 年电动汽车的渗透率必须至少达到 40%，并且热力发电率应满足必要的耦合条件。虽然降低热力发电率可以减轻环境问题，但我们发现，尽管将热力发电率降低到 10%，西安在 2021-2035 年期间的电动汽车发展仍将加剧 SO 的排放。最后，为了避免加剧与车辆相关的污染物对公众健康的不利影响，到 2035 年电动汽车的渗透率应至少达到 40%，在 40%、50%、60%和 70%的情景下，相应的热力发电率不应超过 10%、30%、50%和 60%。本研究从碳排放峰值、空气污染控制和人类健康的角度系统地分析了电动汽车的可能发展路径，其研究结果可为减少道路交通领域的污染和碳排放提供及时和有价值的参考。
