Da Cui, Gu Xinyu, Lu Chunchen, Hua Ruiqi, Chang Xinyue, Cheng Yuanyuan, Qian Feiyue, Wang Yiheng
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Suzhou University of Science and Technology, No. 1 Kerui Road, Suzhou, 215009, People's Republic of China.
Suzhou Foreign Language School, No. 201 Zhuyuan Road, Suzhou, 215011, People's Republic of China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2022 Oct;29(50):76286-76297. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-21284-w. Epub 2022 Jun 6.
The promotion of new energy in light-duty vehicles (LDVs) is considered as an effective approach for achieving low-carbon road transport targets. In this study, life cycle assessment was performed for five typical vehicle models in Suzhou City (fourth largest LDV stock in China): internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV), hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in electric vehicle (PHEV), battery electric vehicle (BEV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (HFCV). Their energy consumption, and greenhouse gas (GHG) and air pollutant emissions during vehicle and fuel cycles in 2020 were examined using the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation (GREET) model. GHG emission reduction potential of LDV fleet was projected under various scenarios for 2021-2040. The results showed that BEVs exhibited advantages for replacing ICEVs over HEVs, PHEVs and HFCVs, taking into account China's road electrification policy. The GHG emission intensity of BEVs in 2040 was estimated to be 19-34% of ICEVs in 2020, with a deep decarbonized electricity mix and improved vehicle efficiency. For the aggressive Sustainable Development Scenario, the GHG emissions of LDVs would peak before 2026, ahead of China's target by 2030, and the ~ 100% share of EVs in 2040 would result in a lower GHG emissions, equivalent to the 2010 level. It highlights the importance of early action, green electricity mix, and public transport development in reducing GHG emissions of large LDV fleet.
推广轻型车辆（LDV）中的新能源被视为实现低碳道路运输目标的有效途径。在本研究中，对苏州市（中国第四大轻型车辆保有量城市）的五种典型车型进行了生命周期评估：内燃机汽车（ICEV）、混合动力电动汽车（HEV）、插电式电动汽车（PHEV）、电池电动汽车（BEV）和氢燃料电池汽车（HFCV）。使用《交通温室气体、受控排放和能源使用》（GREET）模型，研究了它们在2020年车辆和燃料周期中的能源消耗、温室气体（GHG）和空气污染物排放。预测了2021-2040年不同情景下轻型车辆车队的温室气体减排潜力。结果表明，考虑到中国的道路电气化政策，电池电动汽车在替代内燃机汽车方面比混合动力电动汽车、插电式电动汽车和氢燃料电池汽车具有优势。预计到2040年，在深度脱碳的电力结构和提高车辆效率的情况下，电池电动汽车的温室气体排放强度将为2020年内燃机汽车的19%-34%。对于激进的可持续发展情景，轻型车辆的温室气体排放将在2026年前达到峰值，早于中国2030年的目标，并且2040年电动汽车约100%的份额将导致更低的温室气体排放，相当于2010年的水平。这凸显了早期行动、绿色电力结构和公共交通发展在减少大型轻型车辆车队温室气体排放方面的重要性。
