Lancet Haematol. 2023 Aug;10(8):e585-e599. doi: 10.1016/S2352-3026(23)00118-7. Epub 2023 Jun 15.
BACKGROUND: Previous global analyses, with known underdiagnosis and single cause per death attribution systems, provide only a small insight into the suspected high population health effect of sickle cell disease. Completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, this study delivers a comprehensive global assessment of prevalence of sickle cell disease and mortality burden by age and sex for 204 countries and territories from 2000 to 2021. METHODS: We estimated cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality using standardised GBD approaches, in which each death is assigned to a single underlying cause, to estimate mortality rates from the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-coded vital registration, surveillance, and verbal autopsy data. In parallel, our goal was to estimate a more accurate account of sickle cell disease health burden using four types of epidemiological data on sickle cell disease: birth incidence, age-specific prevalence, with-condition mortality (total deaths), and excess mortality (excess deaths). Systematic reviews, supplemented with ICD-coded hospital discharge and insurance claims data, informed this modelling approach. We employed DisMod-MR 2.1 to triangulate between these measures-borrowing strength from predictive covariates and across age, time, and geography-and generated internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality for three distinct genotypes of sickle cell disease: homozygous sickle cell disease and severe sickle cell β-thalassaemia, sickle-haemoglobin C disease, and mild sickle cell β-thalassaemia. Summing the three models yielded final estimates of incidence at birth, prevalence by age and sex, and total sickle cell disease mortality, the latter of which was compared directly against cause-specific mortality estimates to evaluate differences in mortality burden assessment and implications for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). FINDINGS: Between 2000 and 2021, national incidence rates of sickle cell disease were relatively stable, but total births of babies with sickle cell disease increased globally by 13·7% (95% uncertainty interval 11·1-16·5), to 515 000 (425 000-614 000), primarily due to population growth in the Caribbean and western and central sub-Saharan Africa. The number of people living with sickle cell disease globally increased by 41·4% (38·3-44·9), from 5·46 million (4·62-6·45) in 2000 to 7·74 million (6·51-9·2) in 2021. We estimated 34 400 (25 000-45 200) cause-specific all-age deaths globally in 2021, but total sickle cell disease mortality burden was nearly 11-times higher at 376 000 (303 000-467 000). In children younger than 5 years, there were 81 100 (58 800-108 000) deaths, ranking total sickle cell disease mortality as 12th (compared to 40th for cause-specific sickle cell disease mortality) across all causes estimated by the GBD in 2021. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show a strikingly high contribution of sickle cell disease to all-cause mortality that is not apparent when each death is assigned to only a single cause. Sickle cell disease mortality burden is highest in children, especially in countries with the greatest under-5 mortality rates. Without comprehensive strategies to address morbidity and mortality associated with sickle cell disease, attainment of SDG 3.1, 3.2, and 3.4 is uncertain. Widespread data gaps and correspondingly high uncertainty in the estimates highlight the urgent need for routine and sustained surveillance efforts, further research to assess the contribution of conditions associated with sickle cell disease, and widespread deployment of evidence-based prevention and treatment for those with sickle cell disease. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
背景:之前的全球分析由于诊断不足和采用单一死因归因系统,因此只能对镰状细胞病对人口健康的潜在高影响有初步了解。本研究作为 2021 年全球疾病、伤害和危险因素研究(GBD)的一部分完成,对 204 个国家和地区 2000 年至 2021 年的镰状细胞病患病率和死亡率负担进行了全面的全球评估,该研究按年龄和性别评估了镰状细胞病的死亡率。
方法:我们使用标准化的 GBD 方法估计特定病因的镰状细胞病死亡率,该方法将每个死亡归因于单一根本原因,以根据国际疾病分类(ICD)编码的生命登记、监测和死因推断数据来估计死亡率。同时,我们的目标是使用镰状细胞病的四种流行病学数据来更准确地估算镰状细胞病的健康负担:发病情况、特定年龄的患病率、有病症死亡率(总死亡人数)和超额死亡率(超额死亡人数)。系统评价补充了 ICD 编码的住院和保险理赔数据,为这种建模方法提供了信息。我们使用 DisMod-MR 2.1 对这些措施进行三角剖分——借用预测性协变量的优势,跨越年龄、时间和地理,并为三种不同基因型的镰状细胞病(纯合镰状细胞病和严重镰状细胞β-地中海贫血、镰状血红蛋白 C 病和轻度镰状细胞β-地中海贫血)生成发病率、患病率和死亡率的内部一致估计。将这三个模型相加,得出出生时的发病率、按年龄和性别划分的患病率以及总镰状细胞病死亡率的最终估计值,然后将后者与特定病因的死亡率估计值进行比较,以评估死亡率负担评估的差异及其对可持续发展目标(SDG)的影响。
发现:2000 年至 2021 年,镰状细胞病的国家发病率相对稳定,但全球患有镰状细胞病的婴儿总出生人数增加了 13.7%(95%置信区间为 11.1%至 16.5%),达到 51.5 万(42.5 万至 61.4 万),主要是加勒比地区和撒哈拉以南非洲西部和中部人口增长所致。全球镰状细胞病患者人数增加了 41.4%(38.3%至 44.9%),从 2000 年的 546 万(462 万至 645 万)增加到 2021 年的 774 万(651 万至 920 万)。我们估计全球 2021 年有 34400 人(25000 人至 45200 人)死于所有年龄的特定病因,但镰状细胞病的总死亡率负担几乎高出 11 倍,为 376000 人(303000 人至 467000 人)。在 5 岁以下儿童中,有 81100 人(58800 人至 108000 人)死亡,在 2021 年全球疾病负担中,镰状细胞病总死亡率在所有病因中排名第 12 位(而特定病因镰状细胞病死亡率则排名第 40 位)。
解释:我们的研究结果表明,镰状细胞病对所有死因的死亡率贡献巨大,而当每个死亡都归因于单一病因时,这一点并不明显。在儿童中,镰状细胞病死亡率负担最高,尤其是在 5 岁以下儿童死亡率最高的国家。如果没有全面的策略来解决与镰状细胞病相关的发病率和死亡率,那么实现可持续发展目标 3.1、3.2 和 3.4 的目标将难以实现。数据差距广泛存在,估计值的不确定性也很高,这突出表明迫切需要进行常规和持续的监测工作,进一步研究评估与镰状细胞病相关的疾病的贡献,并广泛部署针对镰状细胞病患者的循证预防和治疗方法。
资助:比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会。
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