Leijten Floris, Lantz C Baldos Uris, Johnson Justin A, Sim Sarah, Verburg Peter H
Environmental Geography Group, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, 1081HV Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, 403 West State Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA.
iScience. 2023 May 26;26(6):106971. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106971. eCollection 2023 Jun 16.
In the last three decades, global production of oil palm has boomed, which has partly come at the expense of tropical rainforests. Recognizing this, many companies operating in the palm oil industry have committed to eliminate deforestation from their operations, often referred to as zero-deforestation commitments (ZDCs). Here, we estimate that if ZDCs are fully adopted and enforced across all sectors and geographies, the global extent of oil palm plantations may be 11 M ha or 40% smaller in 2030 than in a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario that assumes no compliance with ZDCs. As a result of such land-sparing effects, we estimate that 96 M ha of forests are saved from conversion, of which, 17% would otherwise have been converted (directly or indirectly) due to expanding oil palm plantations. Overall, these figures suggest that ZDCs have the potential to deliver major environmental benefits if they are fully adopted and enforced.
在过去三十年中，全球油棕产量激增，这在一定程度上是以热带雨林为代价的。认识到这一点后，许多从事棕榈油行业的公司已承诺在其运营中消除森林砍伐，这通常被称为零森林砍伐承诺（ZDCs）。在此，我们估计，如果在所有部门和地区全面采用并执行ZDCs，到2030年，全球油棕种植园的面积可能比不遵守ZDCs的照常营业（BAU）情景下少1100万公顷，即减少40%。由于这种土地节约效应，我们估计有9600万公顷的森林得以避免被转化，其中17%否则会因油棕种植园的扩张（直接或间接）而被转化。总体而言，这些数据表明，如果ZDCs得到充分采用和执行，它们有可能带来重大的环境效益。
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