Đukan Mak, Gumber Anurag, Egli Florian, Steffen Bjarne
Climate Finance and Policy Group, ETH Zürich, Clausiusstrasse 37, 8006 Zürich, Switzerland.
Energy and Technology Policy Group, ETH Zürich, Clausiusstrasse 37, 8006 Zürich, Switzerland.
iScience. 2023 May 22;26(6):106945. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106945. eCollection 2023 Jun 16.
Offshore wind will play a critical role in decarbonizing Europe's energy infrastructure. Nevertheless, according to recent financing cost surveys, its investment risk expressed as the cost of capital (CoC) is higher than for onshore wind and solar photovoltaics. This perspective elaborates on the possible reasons behind the offshore wind CoC premium and potential remedies. Our analysis discusses that the massive capital expenditures and construction complexity have concentrated European offshore wind ownership among utilities and oil & gas companies that owing to their legacy investments in fossil fuel infrastructure, have higher return expectations for offshore wind assets. Furthermore, these large-scale investors are bidding zero and negative in highly competitive auctions for offshore wind sites, increasing the project's merchant risks and CoC. We discuss possible policy solutions to alleviate these risks, including revenue stabilization, enabling a more liquid refinancing market, and creating more robust corporate Power Purchase Agreements via government guarantees.
海上风电将在欧洲能源基础设施脱碳过程中发挥关键作用。然而,根据最近的融资成本调查,以资本成本(CoC)表示的海上风电投资风险高于陆上风电和太阳能光伏。本观点阐述了海上风电资本成本溢价背后的可能原因及潜在补救措施。我们的分析指出,巨额资本支出和建设复杂性使得欧洲海上风电所有权集中在公用事业公司和石油天然气公司手中,由于它们在化石燃料基础设施方面的遗留投资,对海上风电资产有更高的回报期望。此外,这些大型投资者在海上风电场极具竞争力的拍卖中出价为零甚至负出价,增加了项目的商业风险和资本成本。我们讨论了缓解这些风险的可能政策解决方案,包括收入稳定、建立更具流动性的再融资市场,以及通过政府担保创建更稳健的企业购电协议。