Mount Allison University, Sackville, Canada; Centre for Disease Modeling, Toronto, Canada.
Mount Allison University, Sackville, Canada.
Epidemics. 2023 Sep;44:100693. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100693. Epub 2023 Jun 14.
The current global outbreaks of mpox is a unique infectious disease in the way it seems to be transmitting: it has been observed to be highly concentrated in communities of men who have sex with men (MSM) through pair formation, and also provides long lasting immunity. This framework of mostly close, prolonged contact spreading a disease that admits immunity after infection is unlike similar infections which either offer little to no immunity post-infection or are lifelong infections. This creates the need for a new model framework that incorporates pair formation structure with recovery. While seemingly a straight forward model, we show how new dynamics arise from the combination of pair formation and recovery that are not present in a standard model with recovery and also not present in a pair formation model without recovery. We see that the combination of these two properties allows for waves of infection that are not seen in a standard SIR model. These dynamics suggest that outbreaks of mpox around the world may require special attention from public health. We also derive a reproduction number for this model and estimate the reproduction number of human mpox to be ≈2.3 using global and Canadian data. The expression derived for R can help estimate key parameters for diseases transmission and public health interventions and compare to equivalent models without pair formation.
它似乎高度集中在男男性行为者（MSM）群体中，通过配对形成传播，并且提供持久的免疫力。这种主要通过密切、长时间接触传播疾病的框架，在感染后承认免疫，与类似的感染不同，后者要么在感染后提供很少或没有免疫，要么是终身感染。这就需要一个新的模型框架，将配对形成结构与恢复结合起来。虽然这似乎是一个简单的模型，但我们展示了如何从配对形成和恢复的组合中产生新的动态，这些动态在带有恢复的标准模型中不存在，也不存在没有恢复的配对形成模型中存在。我们看到这两个特性的组合允许出现标准 SIR 模型中没有的感染波。这些动态表明，世界各地的猴痘疫情可能需要公共卫生部门的特别关注。我们还为这个模型推导出了一个繁殖数，并使用全球和加拿大的数据估计人类猴痘的繁殖数约为 2.3。推导出的 R 表达式可以帮助估计疾病传播和公共卫生干预的关键参数，并与没有配对形成的等效模型进行比较。
