Climate Change and Global Health Research Group, School of Public Health, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada.
School of Public Health Sciences, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
Epidemiol Infect. 2023 May 23;151:e121. doi: 10.1017/S0950268823000791.
Human monkeypox (mpox) virus is a viral zoonosis that belongs to the Orthopoxvirus genus of the Poxviridae family, which presents with similar symptoms as those seen in human smallpox patients. Mpox is an increasing concern globally, with over 80,000 cases in non-endemic countries as of December 2022. In this review, we provide a brief history and ecology of mpox, its basic virology, and the key differences in mpox viral fitness traits before and after 2022. We summarize and critique current knowledge from epidemiological mathematical models, within-host models, and between-host transmission models using the One Health approach, where we distinguish between models that focus on immunity from vaccination, geography, climatic variables, as well as animal models. We report various epidemiological parameters, such as the reproduction number, , in a condensed format to facilitate comparison between studies. We focus on how mathematical modelling studies have led to novel mechanistic insight into mpox transmission and pathogenesis. As mpox is predicted to lead to further infection peaks in many historically non-endemic countries, mathematical modelling studies of mpox can provide rapid actionable insights into viral dynamics to guide public health measures and mitigation strategies.
人类猴痘（mpox）病毒是一种病毒性人畜共患病，属于正痘病毒属痘病毒科，其症状与人类天花患者相似。截至 2022 年 12 月，在非流行国家已报告超过 80000 例猴痘病例，该病毒在全球范围内受到越来越多的关注。在这篇综述中，我们简要介绍了猴痘的历史和生态学、基础病毒学以及 2022 年前后猴痘病毒适应性特征的关键差异。我们使用“One Health”方法，总结和评价了流行病学数学模型、体内模型和宿主间传播模型的现有知识，其中我们区分了专注于免疫接种、地理、气候变量以及动物模型的模型。我们以简明的格式报告了各种流行病学参数，例如繁殖数 ，以方便比较研究。我们重点介绍了数学模型研究如何为猴痘的传播和发病机制提供新的机制见解。由于预计猴痘将在许多历史上非流行国家导致进一步的感染高峰，因此对猴痘的数学模型研究可以为病毒动力学提供快速可行的见解，以指导公共卫生措施和缓解策略。
