严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2奥密克戎-A易感-感染-康复-易感(SIRS)模型分析的地方病振荡
Endemic oscillations for SARS-CoV-2 Omicron-A SIRS model analysis.
作者信息
Nill Florian
机构信息
Department of Physics, Free University Berlin, Arnimallee 14, 14195 Berlin, Germany.
出版信息
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2023 Aug;173:113678. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113678. Epub 2023 Jun 16.
The SIRS model with constant vaccination and immunity waning rates is well known to show a transition from a disease-free to an endemic equilibrium as the basic reproduction number is raised above threshold. It is shown that this model maps to Hethcote's classic endemic model originally published in 1973. In this way one obtains unifying formulas for a whole class of models showing endemic bifurcation. In particular, if the vaccination rate is smaller than the recovery rate and for certain upper and lower bounds , then trajectories spiral into the endemic equilibrium via damped infection waves. Latest data of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant suggest that according to this simplified model continuous vaccination programs will not be capable to escape the oscillating endemic phase. However, in view of the strong damping factors predicted by the model, in reality these oscillations will certainly be overruled by time-dependent contact behaviors.
具有恒定疫苗接种率和免疫衰退率的SIRS模型广为人知,当基本再生数提高到阈值以上时,该模型会显示从无病平衡向地方病平衡的转变。研究表明,该模型可映射到赫特科特1973年最初发表的经典地方病模型。通过这种方式,人们获得了一整类显示地方病分岔的模型的统一公式。特别是,如果疫苗接种率小于恢复率,并且在某些上下界条件下,那么轨迹会通过阻尼感染波螺旋进入地方病平衡。严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)奥密克戎变种的最新数据表明,根据这个简化模型,持续的疫苗接种计划将无法摆脱振荡的地方病阶段。然而,鉴于该模型预测的强阻尼因素,在现实中这些振荡肯定会被随时间变化的接触行为所克服。