The U.S. HIV epidemic disproportionately affects Black and Hispanic communities via ecosocial determinants of excess HIV risk, including HIV criminalization laws and overpolicing. This study used multilevel modeling to test the hypothesis that HIV criminalization laws are associated with higher county HIV incidence, and that this effect is modified by heavier county-level policing. County-level HIV incidence data from 2010 to 2019 were merged with county-level demographic, socioeconomic, and jailed population rate data for counties with stable HIV incidence rates (rates generated from a numerator of at least 12) for > 5 years. Multivariable multilevel (hierarchical) models for count-rate data were fitted, with years nested inside counties, and counties nested within states. An HIV criminalization law was associated with higher countywide HIV incidence rate for the general, Black, and Hispanic populations (aRR = 1.14, 1.30, and 1.32, respectively). This association was modified by an increased county jailed population rate for the general and Black populations.