Khojasteh Danial, Felder Stefan, Heimhuber Valentin, Glamore William
Water Research Laboratory, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, UNSW Sydney, NSW, Australia.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Oct 10;894:165011. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165011. Epub 2023 Jun 21.
Climate change induced sea level rise (SLR) is one of the greatest challenges threatening the sustainable management of estuaries worldwide. Current knowledge regarding SLR and estuarine hydrodynamics is primarily focused on individual case studies, which provides limited guidance on how different estuary typologies will respond to SLR. To expand the current knowledge, this research used an idealised hydrodynamic approach to analyse the tidal range dynamics of 25 real-world estuaries with diverse shapes and boundary conditions, providing insights into estuarine response to SLR-induced tidal variations. Under present-day conditions, short length estuaries with wide entrances, deep waters, strong convergence, macro-tidal conditions, low values of roughness, and low upland river inflows are likely to experience amplified tidal range patterns; whereas lengthy estuaries with narrow entrances, shallow water depths, micro/meso-tidal conditions, high values of roughness, and high upland river inflows often exhibit a mix of dampened-amplified or fully dampened tidal range patterns. Under the effects of SLR, estuarine tidal range dynamics change depending on their present-day tidal range patterns. Where the present-day tidal range pattern is either dampening, a mix of dampening/amplification, or amplification, SLR increases (up to 61 %), moderately increases (up to 26 %), and slightly decreases/increases (up to 5 %) the tidal range of estuaries, respectively. Considering the relationship between an estuary's present-day tidal range pattern and its response to SLR, the presented approach may be useful in providing an initial assessment of SLR effects in estuaries worldwide. This approach may also help to identify sites most impacted by future SLR, and to direct decision-making towards evidence-based management approaches.
气候变化导致的海平面上升（SLR）是威胁全球河口可持续管理的最大挑战之一。目前关于海平面上升和河口流体动力学的知识主要集中在个别案例研究上，这对于不同类型的河口将如何应对海平面上升提供的指导有限。为了扩展现有知识，本研究采用理想化的流体动力学方法分析了25个具有不同形状和边界条件的真实世界河口的潮差动态，从而深入了解河口对海平面上升引起的潮汐变化的响应。在当前条件下，入口宽阔、水深较深、汇聚强烈、大潮条件、粗糙度值较低且上游河流入流量较小的短河口可能会经历潮差放大模式；而入口狭窄、水深较浅、微/中潮条件、粗糙度值较高且上游河流入流量较大的长河口通常呈现潮差减弱-放大混合或完全减弱的模式。在海平面上升的影响下，河口潮差动态根据其当前的潮差模式而变化。当当前潮差模式为减弱、减弱/放大混合或放大时，海平面上升分别使河口潮差增加（高达61%）、适度增加（高达26%）以及略有下降/增加（高达5%）。考虑到河口当前潮差模式与其对海平面上升响应之间的关系，本文提出的方法可能有助于对全球河口的海平面上升影响进行初步评估。该方法还可能有助于确定受未来海平面上升影响最大的地点，并指导基于证据的管理方法的决策制定。
