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打破法医鉴定中的趋势:基于似然比的比较方法。

Breaking with trends in forensic dating: A likelihood ratio-based comparison approach.

机构信息

Forensic Chemistry Research Group, Institute of Chemistry, University of Silesia in Katowice, Szkolna 9, 40-006 Katowice, Poland; Institute of Forensic Research in Krakow, Westerplatte 9, 31-003, Krakow, Poland.

Forensic Chemistry Research Group, Institute of Chemistry, University of Silesia in Katowice, Szkolna 9, 40-006 Katowice, Poland.

出版信息

Forensic Sci Int. 2023 Aug;349:111763. doi: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2023.111763. Epub 2023 Jun 14.

DOI:10.1016/j.forsciint.2023.111763
PMID:37356322
Abstract

Further steps toward understanding the time-related information contained within bloodstains found at the crime scene are rightly considered a top priority in forensic science. Contrary to widely held assumptions, the reason for the delayed exploitation of bloodstains dating methods in practice is not the lack of suitable analytical techniques for monitoring degradation processes. The problem lies in the variability of the environmental and circumstantial conditions, playing a vital role in the degradation kinetics of blood deposits. The present article demonstrates the possibility of breaking with current approaches based on absolute age estimations to finally answer time-centered questions in real forensic scenarios. The proposed novel framework for situating forensic traces in time is based on the likelihood ratio assessment of the (dis)similarity between the evidence decomposition and sets of reference materials obtained through supervised aging. In such a strategy, every dating procedure is constructed on a case-by-case basis to fit examined blood traces, thereby limiting the adverse influence of external factors on the validity of age estimations and providing a way for future crime scene implementation.

摘要

进一步理解犯罪现场血迹中所包含的时间相关信息,这在法医学中被认为是当务之急。与普遍的假设相反,在实践中延迟利用血迹时间推断方法的原因并不是缺乏适合监测降解过程的分析技术。问题在于环境和情境条件的可变性,这些条件在血液沉积物的降解动力学中起着至关重要的作用。本文展示了突破当前基于绝对年龄估计方法的可能性,最终在真实的法医场景中回答以时间为中心的问题。本文提出的一种新的将法医学痕迹定位在时间中的框架,是基于证据分解与通过监督老化获得的参考材料集之间(不)相似性的似然比评估。在这种策略中,每个时间推断程序都是根据所检查的血迹情况进行构建的,从而限制了外部因素对年龄估计有效性的不利影响,并为未来的犯罪现场实施提供了一种方法。

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