Li Jiaying, Geneletti Davide, Wang Hongcheng
Department of Landscape Architecture, Tianjin University, 300072 Tianjin, China.
Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento, Via Mesiano, 77 38123 Trento, Italy.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Oct 15;895:165067. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165067. Epub 2023 Jun 24.
Metropolitan areas are being challenged by the disparity between growing societal needs and dwindling natural resource provision. Understanding the supply-demand mismatches of ecosystem services (ES) and their drivers is essential for landscape planning and decision-making. However, integrating such information into spatial planning remains challenging due to the complex nature of urban ecosystems and their intrinsic interactions. In this study, we first assessed and mapped the supply, demand, and mismatches of six typical ES in Tianjin, China. We then clustered numerous townships based on their corresponding spatial characteristic of ES supply-demand mismatches. We also used Random Forest regression to examine the relative importance of drivers and applied Partial Least Squares structural equation modelling to decouple their interactions. The results showed that, the distribution of ES supply and demand showed obvious spatial heterogeneity, with a common surplus of ES supply in highly natural mountainous region and an excess of demand in urban centre. Additionally, all towns were classified into four spatial clusters with homogeneous states of supply-demand mismatches, serving as basic units for spatial optimization. Moreover, the interactions between drivers affected ES supply-demand mismatches in a coupled manner, including the direct effects of the socioeconomic factor (-0.821) and landscape composition (0.234), as well as the indirect effects of the biophysical factor (0.151) and landscape configuration (0.082). Finally, we discussed the utility of analysing the spatial mismatches between ES supply and demand for integrated territorial planning and coordinated decision-making.
大都市地区正面临着社会需求不断增长与自然资源供应日益减少之间的差距所带来的挑战。了解生态系统服务（ES）的供需不匹配情况及其驱动因素对于景观规划和决策至关重要。然而，由于城市生态系统的复杂性及其内在相互作用，将此类信息整合到空间规划中仍然具有挑战性。在本研究中，我们首先评估并绘制了中国天津市六种典型生态系统服务的供应、需求和不匹配情况。然后，我们根据乡镇相应的生态系统服务供需不匹配的空间特征对众多乡镇进行了聚类。我们还使用随机森林回归来检验驱动因素的相对重要性，并应用偏最小二乘结构方程模型来解耦它们之间的相互作用。结果表明，生态系统服务的供应和需求分布呈现出明显的空间异质性，在高度自然的山区生态系统服务供应普遍过剩，而在城市中心则需求过剩。此外，所有城镇被划分为四个具有供需不匹配同质状态的空间集群，作为空间优化的基本单元。此外，驱动因素之间的相互作用以耦合方式影响生态系统服务供需不匹配，包括社会经济因素（-0.821）和景观组成（0.234）的直接影响，以及生物物理因素（0.151）和景观配置（0.082）的间接影响。最后，我们讨论了分析生态系统服务供需空间不匹配对于综合国土规划和协调决策的效用。
