运动相关的 SARS-CoV-2 长程空气传播风险：一项数学建模研究。

Risk of Sports-associated Long-range Airborne Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: A Mathematical Modeling Study.

机构信息

Basic Clinical Science and Public health, Tokai University School of Medicine, 143 Shimokasuya, Isehara, Kanagawa 259-1193, Japan.

出版信息

Tokai J Exp Clin Med. 2023 Jul 20;48(2):62-66.

PMID:37356971

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

The worldwide pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and its variants remains a health threat. As sports event-related outbreaks due to long-range airborne transmission in ventilation have been reported, the present study aimed to quantify infection risk using available data and apply the results to an outbreak in an ice hockey arena.

METHODS

A mathematical modeling approach was used to estimate the risk of airborne infection.

RESULTS

A quantum was defined as the dose of airborne droplet nuclei required to cause infection in 63% of susceptible persons. The estimated quanta emission rate per infector showed a log-normal distribution with a geometric mean (GM) of 28.81, geometric deviation (GD) of 5.78, and median of 22.65 quanta/h. The estimated average time-average quanta concentration (C; quanta/m) showed a log-normal distribution with a GM of 0.08, GD of 5.80, and median of 0.06. The outdoor ventilation rate per infected person for the scenario showed a log-normal distribution with a GM of 710.96, GD of 6.22, and median of 169.17 m/h. A higher C value indicated exposure to SARS-CoV-2 due to the lower ventilation rate in the a rena a nd the large expiratory volume of athletes caused by intensive exercise.

摘要

目的

由严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2（SARS-CoV-2）及其变体引起的全球大流行仍然是一个健康威胁。由于已报告与体育赛事相关的通过长程空气传播在通风系统中爆发的疫情，本研究旨在利用现有数据量化感染风险，并将结果应用于曲棍球馆的疫情暴发。

方法

采用数学建模方法来估计空气传播感染的风险。

结果

量子被定义为引起 63%易感者感染所需的空气飞沫核剂量。感染者的估计量子发射率呈对数正态分布，几何平均值（GM）为 28.81，几何偏差（GD）为 5.78，中位数为 22.65 量子/小时。估计的平均时均量子浓度（C；量子/m）呈对数正态分布，GM 为 0.08，GD 为 5.80，中位数为 0.06。考虑到场馆通风率低以及运动员剧烈运动导致呼气量增加，感染者的室外通风率呈对数正态分布，GM 为 710.96，GD 为 6.22，中位数为 169.17 m/h。C 值较高表明由于场馆通风率低以及运动员剧烈运动导致呼气量增加，接触 SARS-CoV-2 的风险增加。