Ivanovic Vladan, Lami Endrit, Imami Drini
Faculty of Economics, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac, Serbia.
CERGE-EI, Prague, Czech Republic.
Comp Econ Stud. 2023 Mar 7:1-31. doi: 10.1057/s41294-023-00210-0.
The paper analyses Political Budget Cycles in the context of a young post-communist democracy, Serbia. The authors deploy well-established methodological (time series) approaches to examine the general government budget balance (fiscal deficit) in conjunction with elections. The findings suggest that there is clear evidence of higher fiscal deficit prior to elections-however, this is the case only for regular (scheduled) elections and not so for snap (early called) elections. The paper contributes to the PBC literature by revealing different incumbent behaviour in regular versus early elections, thus highlighting the importance of distinguishing between these types of elections in the domain of PBC research.
本文分析了后共产主义时期年轻民主国家塞尔维亚背景下的政治预算周期。作者采用成熟的方法论（时间序列）方法，结合选举来研究政府总预算平衡（财政赤字）。研究结果表明，有明确证据显示选举前存在更高的财政赤字——然而，这种情况仅适用于常规（预定）选举，而不适用于仓促（提前举行）选举。本文通过揭示常规选举与提前选举中现任者的不同行为，为政治预算周期文献做出了贡献，从而凸显了在政治预算周期研究领域区分这些选举类型的重要性。
