Carlson Steven J, Levine Linda J, Lench Heather C, Flynn Elinor, Winks Kaitlin M H, Winckler Britanny E
Department of Psychological Science, University of California, Irvine, USA.
Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, USA.
Motiv Emot. 2023 Mar 30:1-19. doi: 10.1007/s11031-023-10007-4.
Forecasts about future emotion are often inaccurate, so why do people rely on them to make decisions? People may forecast some features of their emotional experience better than others, and they may report relying on forecasts that are more accurate to make decisions. To test this, four studies assessed the features of emotion people reported forecasting to make decisions about their careers, education, politics, and health. In Study 1, graduating medical students reported relying more on forecast emotional intensity than frequency or duration to decide how to rank residency programs as part of the process of being matched with a program. Similarly, participants reported relying more on forecast emotional intensity than frequency or duration to decide which universities to apply to (Study 2), which presidential candidate to vote for (Study 3), and whether to travel as Covid-19 rates declined (Study 4). Studies 1 and 3 also assessed forecasting accuracy. Participants forecast emotional intensity more accurately than frequency or duration. People make better decisions when they can anticipate the future. Thus, people's reports of relying on forecast emotional intensity to guide life-changing decisions, and the greater accuracy of these forecasts, provide important new evidence of the adaptive value of affective forecasts.
关于未来情绪的预测往往不准确，那么为什么人们还依赖它们来做决策呢？人们对自身情绪体验某些特征的预测可能比其他特征更准确，而且他们可能会报告说依赖更准确的预测来做决策。为了验证这一点，四项研究评估了人们报告的用于职业、教育、政治和健康决策的情绪预测特征。在研究1中，即将毕业的医学生报告说，在作为与某个项目匹配过程的一部分来决定如何对住院医师项目进行排名时，他们更多地依赖预测的情绪强度而非频率或持续时间。同样，参与者在决定申请哪所大学（研究2）、投票给哪位总统候选人（研究3）以及随着新冠疫情感染率下降是否出行（研究4）时，报告称更多地依赖预测的情绪强度而非频率或持续时间。研究1和3还评估了预测准确性。参与者对情绪强度的预测比对频率或持续时间的预测更准确。当人们能够预测未来时，他们能做出更好的决策。因此，人们报告依赖预测的情绪强度来指导改变人生的决策，以及这些预测更高的准确性，为情感预测的适应性价值提供了重要的新证据。
