Stern School of Business, New York University, New York, NY 10012, USA.
J Exp Psychol Gen. 2010 Nov;139(4):579-89. doi: 10.1037/a0020285.
Why do affective forecasting errors persist in the face of repeated disconfirming evidence? Five studies demonstrate that people misremember their forecasts as consistent with their experience and thus fail to perceive the extent of their forecasting error. As a result, people do not learn from past forecasting errors and fail to adjust subsequent forecasts. In the context of a Super Bowl loss (Study 1), a presidential election (Studies 2 and 3), an important purchase (Study 4), and the consumption of candies (Study 5), individuals mispredicted their affective reactions to these experiences and subsequently misremembered their predictions as more accurate than they actually had been. The findings indicate that this recall error results from people's tendency to anchor on their current affective state when trying to recall their affective forecasts. Further, those who showed larger recall errors were less likely to learn to adjust their subsequent forecasts and reminding people of their actual forecasts enhanced learning. These results suggest that a failure to accurately recall one's past predictions contributes to the perpetuation of forecasting errors.
为什么在面对反复的否定证据时，情感预测错误仍然存在？五项研究表明，人们错误地将自己的预测记忆为与自己的经验一致，从而未能意识到自己预测错误的程度。因此，人们无法从过去的预测错误中吸取教训，也无法调整后续的预测。在超级碗失利（研究 1）、总统选举（研究 2 和 3）、重要购买（研究 4）和糖果消费（研究 5）的背景下，个体错误地预测了他们对这些经历的情感反应，随后错误地将他们的预测记忆为比实际更准确。研究结果表明，这种记忆错误是由于人们在试图回忆自己的情感预测时倾向于将当前的情感状态作为锚定点。此外，那些记忆错误较大的人不太可能学会调整他们后续的预测，而提醒人们他们的实际预测则可以增强学习。这些结果表明，无法准确回忆自己过去的预测会导致预测错误的持续存在。
