Yin Qian, Wang Zhishuang, Xia Chengyi
Tianjin Key Laboratory of Intelligence Computing and Novel Software Technology, Tianjin University of Technology, Tianjin, 300384 China.
Faculty of Intelligence Manufacture, Wuyi University , Jiangmen, 529020 China.
Nonlinear Dyn. 2023 Jun 8:1-13. doi: 10.1007/s11071-023-08581-w.
The emergence of epidemics has seriously threatened the running of human society, such as COVID-19. During the epidemics, some external factors usually have a non-negligible impact on the epidemic transmission. Therefore, we not only consider the interaction between epidemic-related information and infectious diseases, but also the influence of policy interventions on epidemic propagation in this work. We establish a novel model that includes two dynamic processes to explore the co-evolutionary spread of epidemic-related information and infectious diseases under policy intervention, one of which depicts information diffusion about infectious diseases and the other denotes the epidemic transmission. A weighted network is introduced into the epidemic spreading to characterize the impact of policy interventions on social distance between individuals. The dynamic equations are established to describe the proposed model according to the micro-Markov chain (MMC) method. The derived analytical expressions of the epidemic threshold indicate that the network topology, epidemic-related information diffusion and policy intervention all have a direct impact on the epidemic threshold. We use numerical simulation experiments to verify the dynamic equations and epidemic threshold, and further discuss the co-evolution dynamics of the proposed model. Our results show that strengthening epidemic-related information diffusion and policy intervention can significantly inhibit the outbreak and spread of infectious diseases. The current work can provide some valuable references for public health departments to formulate the epidemic prevention and control measures.
流行病的出现严重威胁着人类社会的运转,例如新冠疫情。在疫情期间,一些外部因素通常会对疫情传播产生不可忽视的影响。因此,在这项工作中,我们不仅考虑与疫情相关的信息和传染病之间的相互作用,还考虑政策干预对疫情传播的影响。我们建立了一个新颖的模型,该模型包含两个动态过程,以探索在政策干预下与疫情相关的信息和传染病的共同进化传播,其中一个描述传染病的信息扩散,另一个表示疫情传播。在疫情传播中引入加权网络来表征政策干预对个体间社会距离的影响。根据微观马尔可夫链(MMC)方法建立动态方程来描述所提出的模型。推导得出的疫情阈值的解析表达式表明,网络拓扑结构、与疫情相关的信息扩散和政策干预都对疫情阈值有直接影响。我们通过数值模拟实验验证动态方程和疫情阈值,并进一步讨论所提出模型的共同进化动力学。我们的结果表明,加强与疫情相关的信息扩散和政策干预可以显著抑制传染病的爆发和传播。当前的工作可以为公共卫生部门制定疫情防控措施提供一些有价值的参考。