Fan Di, Lin Yongjia, Fu Xiaoqing Maggie, Yeung Andy C L, Shi Xuanyi
Business Division, School of Fashion and Textiles, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
School of Business, Macau University of Science and Technology, Macao, China.
Transp Res E Logist Transp Rev. 2023 Aug;176:103202. doi: 10.1016/j.tre.2023.103202. Epub 2023 Jun 8.
The speed of recovery from supply chain disruption has been identified as the predominant factor in building a resilient supply chain. However, COVID-19 as an example of an evolving crisis may challenge this assumption. Infection risk concerns may influence production resumption decision-making because any incidents of infection may lead to further shutdowns of production lines and undermine firms' long-term cash flows. Sampling 244 production resumption announcements by Chinese manufacturers in the early COVID-19 crisis (February-March 2020), our analysis shows that, generally, investors react positively to production resumptions. However, investors perceived the earlier production resumptions were higher risk (indicated by declined stock price). Such concerns were exacerbated by more locally confirmed cases of COVID-19 but were less salient for manufacturers with high debts (liquidity pressure). This study calls for a reassessment of the current disruption management mindset in response to new evolving crises (e.g., COVID-19) and provides theoretical, practical, and policy implications for building resilient supply chains.
供应链中断后的恢复速度已被视为构建韧性供应链的主要因素。然而，作为一场不断演变的危机的例证，新冠疫情可能会对这一假设构成挑战。感染风险担忧可能会影响复产决策，因为任何感染事件都可能导致生产线进一步停产，并损害企业的长期现金流。通过对新冠疫情初期（2020年2月至3月）中国制造商发布的244份复产公告进行抽样，我们的分析表明，总体而言，投资者对复产反应积极。然而，投资者认为较早的复产风险更高（以股价下跌为指标）。新冠疫情本地确诊病例增多加剧了此类担忧，但对于高负债（流动性压力）的制造商而言，这种担忧则不那么突出。本研究呼吁重新评估当前应对新出现的不断演变的危机（如新冠疫情）的中断管理思维，并为构建韧性供应链提供理论、实践和政策方面的启示。
