Prognostic Value of Parenteral Nutrition Duration on Risk of Retinopathy of Prematurity: Development and Validation of the Revised DIGIROP Clinical Decision Support Tool.

IMPORTANCE

The prognostic impact of parenteral nutrition duration (PND) on retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is not well studied. Safe prediction models can help optimize ROP screening by effectively discriminating high-risk from low-risk infants.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the prognostic value of PND on ROP; to update and validate the Digital ROP (DIGIROP) 2.0 birth into prescreen and screen prediction models to include all ROP-screened infants regardless of gestational age (GA) and incorporate PND; and to compare the DIGIROP model with the Weight, IGF-1, Neonatal, and ROP (WINROP) and Postnatal Growth and ROP (G-ROP) models.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This retrospective study included 11 139 prematurely born infants from 2007 to 2020 from the Swedish National Registry for ROP. Extended Poisson and logistic models were applied. Data were analyzed from August 2022 to February 2023.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Any ROP and ROP requiring treatment were studied in relation to PND. ROP treatment was the outcome in DIGIROP models. Sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and adjusted OR (aOR) with 95% CI were the main measures. Internal and external validations were performed.

RESULTS

Of 11 139 screened infants, 5071 (45.5%) were girls, and the mean (SD) gestational age was 28.5 (2.4) weeks. ROP developed in 3179 infants (29%), treatment was given in 599 (5%), 7228 (65%) had PND less than 14 days, 2308 (21%) had PND for 14 days or more, and 1603 (14%) had unknown PND. PND was significantly correlated with ROP severity (Spearman r = 0.45; P < .001). Infants with 14 days or more of PND vs less than 14 days had faster progression from any ROP to ROP treatment (adjusted mean difference, -0.9 weeks; 95% CI, -1.5 to -0.3; P = .004). Infants with PND for 14 days or more vs less than 14 days had higher odds of any ROP (aOR, 1.84; 95% CI, 1.62-2.10; P < .001) and of severe ROP requiring treatment (aOR, 2.20; 95% CI, 1.73-2.80; P < .001). Among all 11 139 infants, the DIGIROP 2.0 models had 100% sensitivity (95% CI, 99.4-100). The specificity was 46.6% (95% CI, 45.6-47.5) for the prescreen model and 76.9% (95% CI, 76.1-77.7) for the screen model. G-ROP as well as the DIGIROP 2.0 prescreen and screen models showed 100% sensitivity on a validation subset (G-ROP: sensitivity, 100%; 95% CI, 93-100; DIGIROP prescreen: sensitivity, 100%; 95% CI, 93-100; DIGIROP screen: sensitivity, 100%; 95% CI, 93-100), whereas WINROP showed 89% sensitivity (95% CI, 77-96). Specificity for each prediction model was 29% (95% CI, 22-36) for G-ROP, 38% (95% CI, 32-46) for DIGIROP prescreen, 53% (95% CI, 46-60) for DIGIROP screen at 10 weeks, and 46% (95% CI, 39-53) for WINROP.

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE

Based on more than 11 000 ROP-screened infants born in Sweden, PND of 14 days or more corresponded to a significantly higher risk of having any ROP and receiving ROP treatment. These findings provide evidence to support consideration of using the updated DIGIROP 2.0 models instead of the WINROP or G-ROP models in the management of ROP.