University of Piraeus, 80 Karaoli & Dimitriou Street, Piraeus, 185 34, Greece.
J Urban Health. 2023 Aug;100(4):651-656. doi: 10.1007/s11524-023-00734-x. Epub 2023 Jun 29.
The United States combine high rates of firearm homicides with high gun prevalence. In the past, a significant positive association was found between the two. This study revisits the gun prevalence-gun homicide debate using more elaborate estimates of gun ownership for the 50 States. Longitudinal data (1999-2016) were analysed with Bayesian multilevel Gamma-Poisson models. The results demonstrated a very small positive association that diminished after adjusting for crime rates. Findings suggest that the association either attenuated in more recent years, or previous studies had overestimated this association.
美国的枪支谋杀率居高不下，枪支也非常泛滥。过去，这两者之间存在显著的正相关关系。本研究使用更详细的 50 个州的枪支拥有量估计值，重新审视了枪支泛滥与枪支谋杀之间的争论。使用贝叶斯多层次伽马-泊松模型对纵向数据（1999-2016 年）进行了分析。结果表明，两者之间存在非常小的正相关关系，在调整犯罪率后，这种相关性有所减弱。研究结果表明，这种相关性要么在最近几年有所减弱，要么之前的研究高估了这种相关性。
