The Department of research of energy complex of Russia and the World, The Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 117186, Nagornaya st., 31, k.2, Moscow, Russian Federation.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Aug;30(36):85889-85902. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-28441-9. Epub 2023 Jul 3.
In recent years, the issues of polymer pollution and carbon footprints have stirred up an active debate around the future of petrochemical industry, which over the past 50 years has been a significant driver of global oil demand. It is assumed that the transition to a "circular plastic economy" should resolve environmental issues for the industry, simultaneously eliminating its dependence on petroleum feedstock. In this work, the authors attempted to untangle the concept of "circular plastics" and assess its potential impact on the market of liquid hydrocarbons. Even in the Moderate scenario, the "circular plastics economy" does become an important factor in demand for hydrocarbons in petrochemical industry, reducing it by 5-10% of the business-as-usual case by 2050 and greatly slowing down demand growth rates after 2045, and the more drastic scenario even sees hydrocarbon demand peak by 2040. These findings indicate the importance of taking into account "plastics circularity" when making long-term forecasts of global oil market.
近年来，聚合物污染和碳足迹问题引发了一场关于石化行业未来的激烈争论，过去 50 年来，石化行业一直是全球石油需求的主要驱动因素。人们认为，向“循环塑料经济”的转型应该为该行业解决环境问题，同时消除其对石油原料的依赖。在这项工作中，作者试图理清“循环塑料”的概念，并评估其对液态烃市场的潜在影响。即使在中等情景下，“循环塑料经济”也成为石化行业对碳氢化合物需求的一个重要因素，到 2050 年将比“照常营业”的情况减少 5-10%，并在 2045 年后大大减缓需求增长率，更激进的情景甚至会导致 2040 年碳氢化合物需求达到峰值。这些发现表明，在对全球石油市场进行长期预测时，考虑“塑料循环性”非常重要。
