中国急性淋巴细胞白血病的流行情况：当前趋势与未来预测。

The epidemic of acute lymphoid leukemia in China: current trends and future prediction.

作者信息

Zhu Wenxuan, Liu Shixuan, Shi Ying, Tang Qingyu, Sun Jianzhong, Bai Ruhai, Sun Zhonghe, Du Zhaoqing

机构信息

Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Shaanxi Provincial People's Hospital, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.

Health Science Center, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.

出版信息

Front Oncol. 2023 Jun 16;13:1195065. doi: 10.3389/fonc.2023.1195065. eCollection 2023.

DOI:10.3389/fonc.2023.1195065

PMID:37397360

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10313194/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

China has experienced one of the fastest increases in the incidence of acute lymphoid leukemia (ALL). The aim of this study was to assess the long-term trends of the incidence and mortality of ALL in mainland China between 1990 and 2019 and to project these trends through 2028.

METHODS

Data on ALL were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019; population data were extracted from World Population Prospects 2019. An age-period-cohort framework was used in the analysis.

RESULTS

The net drift for the incidence of ALL was 7.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 7.1%, 7.8%) per year in women and 7.1% (95% CI: 6.7%, 7.6%) in men, and local drift was found to be higher than 0 in every studied age group (p<0.05). The net drift for mortality was 1.2% (95% CI: 1.0%, 1.5%) in women and 2.0% (95% CI: 1.7%, 2.3%) in men. Local drift was lower than 0 in boys aged 0-4 years and girls aged 0-9 years and higher than 0 in men aged 10-84 years and women aged 15-84 years. The estimated period relative risks (RRs) for both incidence and mortality showed increasing trends in the recent period. The cohort RRs for incidence showed increasing trends in both sexes; however, the cohort RR for mortality was decreased in the recent birth cohort (women born after 1988-1992 and men born after 2003-2007). Compared with that in 2019, the incidence of ALL in 2028 is projected to increase by 64.1% in men and 75.0% in women, and the mortality is predicted to decrease by 11.1% in men and 14.3% in women. The proportion of older adult/adults individuals with incident ALL and ALL-related death was projected to increase.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the last three decades, the incidence and mortality rates of ALL have generally increased. It is projected that the incidence rate of ALL in mainland China will continue to increase in the future, but the associated mortality rate will decline. The proportion of older adult/adults individuals with incident ALL and ALL-related death was projected to increase gradually among both sexes. More efforts are needed, especially for older adult/adults individuals.

摘要

背景

中国是急性淋巴细胞白血病（ALL）发病率增长最快的国家之一。本研究旨在评估1990年至2019年中国大陆ALL发病率和死亡率的长期趋势，并预测至2028年的这些趋势。

方法

从《2019年全球疾病负担研究》中提取ALL数据；从《2019年世界人口展望》中提取人口数据。分析采用年龄-时期-队列框架。

结果

ALL发病率的净漂移率在女性中为每年7.5%（95%置信区间[CI]：7.1%，7.8%），在男性中为7.1%（95%CI：6.7%，7.6%），并且在每个研究年龄组中局部漂移均高于0（p<0.05）。死亡率的净漂移率在女性中为1.2%（95%CI：1.0%，1.5%），在男性中为2.0%（95%CI：1.7%，2.3%）。0至4岁男孩和0至9岁女孩的局部漂移低于0，而10至84岁男性和15至84岁女性的局部漂移高于0。发病率和死亡率的估计时期相对风险（RRs）在近期均呈上升趋势。队列RRs发病率在两性中均呈上升趋势；然而，近期出生队列（1988 - 1992年后出生的女性和2003 - 2007年后出生的男性）的死亡率队列RRs有所下降。与2019年相比，预计2028年男性ALL发病率将增加64.1%，女性增加75.0%，男性死亡率预计下降11.1%，女性下降14.3%。新发ALL和ALL相关死亡的老年成人个体比例预计将增加。